August 25 Bitcoin Market Analysis

      Currently, the forces of Bitcoin bulls and bears are in a game of tug-of-war—expectations of interest rate cuts are intertwined with concerns about economic recession. Currently, CME data shows a 75% probability of an interest rate cut in September. The market is currently in a phase of sideways consolidation to digest selling pressure. Although Ethereum has emerged with an independent market trend, it has still failed to drive the overall market sentiment, and liquidity remains tight. We need to pay close attention to the breakout direction of the support at $112,000 and the resistance zone at $118,000. We should patiently wait for the Federal Reserve's policy direction and further clarity on the weekly trend.

Key Focus: Powell's speech on August 26 (pay attention to interest rate cut statements), U.S. PCE inflation data (August 29).

Operational Advice: Short when rebounding to 116000-116500

#BTC

The overall trend at the weekly level remains good, focusing on the fundamental situation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process. There is a short-term need for a pullback to build strength, and a new round of upward cycles at the macro weekly level has begun.

Currently, the daily level has shown three consecutive bearish candles, with moving averages forming a dead cross in a bearish arrangement, and trading volume increasing in tandem. The current short-term trend leans towards bearish.

After five consecutive bearish candles, the four-hour chart has rebounded, but the gains have retraced significantly. The MACD shows a dead cross, and the histogram is increasing below the zero axis, indicating an overall bearish advantage, with short-term operations still leaning towards short positions.

Upper resistance: 113500-114500

Lower support: 110500-109500

Yesterday, BTC adjusted and consolidated, with a significant short-term drop, no negative news observed, and expectations of a washout by the big players.

The four-hour trend is recovering, the daily trend remains healthy, and the downward momentum is starting to weaken, while the weekly trend remains healthy.

Ethereum maintains an independent market trend, once again breaking through historical highs. The four-hour trend is healthy, but a dead cross signal has appeared, requiring adjustments to build strength. The daily level remains healthy, but the top divergence signal is evident.

Today's Highlights

BTC is below the healthy range at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, while the daily level has returned to the healthy range.

Expectations for today remain for consolidation.

Intra-day support: 111600-111100

Upper resistance: 115000-116000

ETH is above the healthy range at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, while the daily level is above the healthy range.

Expectations for today remain for consolidation.

Intra-day support: 4615-4645

Upper resistance: 4900-4950