1. First, let's uncover the truth behind the crash: $213 is not a 'false high point', it is the 'explosion point of bear market momentum', three details show how fierce it is.
Don't think that SOL dropping from $213 to $198 is a 'normal pullback', this drop hides the 'bear market momentum's impact', three details reveal how fierce the selling pressure is:
1. The $210 support 'collapsed instantly': an $8 million sell order broke through, not retail behavior.
From the intraday chart, we can see that when SOL was sideways at $210, a large sell order of $8 million (about 38,000 SOL) suddenly appeared, directly breaking through the $210 support — previously, there was $5 million buying pressure at $210, which was thought to hold, but was swallowed up within a minute, and the price dropped straight to $205. Even more severe, the $205 support did not hold either, and two sell orders of $3 million came down, breaking through $200, hitting a low of $198.69.
This is not retail selling — a single $8 million scale, only institutions or whales can pull out, clearly 'precisely offloading at key support levels'. Moreover, during the drop, the trading volume exploded — the 24-hour trading volume rose from $170 million to $230 million, an increase of 35%, 'price dropping with increasing volume' indicates that selling pressure is still being released, not 'not dropping anymore'.
2. Buyers 'collectively disappear': below $200, the buying pressure is only $3 million, half of what it was before.
What’s more heartbreaking is that 'buying pressure is lacking' — previously when SOL dropped to $201, there was $6 million buying pressure in the $200-$202 range, which could quickly pull it back to $205; now, when it drops to $198, the buying pressure in the $198-$200 range is only $3 million, half of what it was before. Moreover, most of these buying pressures are 'small orders' (below $50,000), with no large capital entering, indicating that buyers lack confidence in the current price and are reluctant to take positions.
Market data is more intuitive: the $195 support now has only $2.5 million buying pressure, if another $3 million sell order appears, it can easily break through $195, and then it may drop directly to the $193 stop-loss, or even $190.
3. Bear market momentum 'has been confirmed': breaking through the key level of $200, the weekly chart also shows a red light.
From a technical perspective, after SOL broke below $200, the bear market momentum has been confirmed — on the daily chart, the price broke below the 50-day moving average ($200), which is a signal of 'short-term trend turning bearish'; on the weekly chart, the previous 'bullish pattern' has been broken, the MACD histogram is starting to shorten, and there are signs of green bars appearing, indicating that the long-term upward trend may pause.
In 2023, SOL also experienced a similar situation: after breaking below the 50-day moving average ($100), it dropped from $100 to $80, a decrease of 20%; now, after breaking below the 50-day moving average ($200), if $195 cannot hold, it may replicate the previous trend, dropping to $190 or even $185.
2. Key point life-and-death struggle: $195 is the 'lifeline', entering at $197-$199 requires waiting for 'confirmation signals'.
In the current SOL market, it all relies on the 'support at $195' and the 'entry zone at $197-$199', if these two points are not understood before acting, it’s easy to step into the pit:
1. $195 support: if it breaks, look at $193 stop-loss, if it holds, there is a chance for a rebound.
$195 is not an ordinary support level; it is the 'low point of June 2025' + 'previously dense transaction area' — at the end of June, SOL dropped to $195 twice but was pulled back, indicating there is 'bottom-fishing buying'; moreover, there is only a $2 stop-loss space from $195 to $193, once it breaks below $195, it can easily trigger stop-loss orders, leading to a 'flash crash' below $193.
If SOL can hold at $195 and show a 'volume stabilization' signal (for example, hourly trading volume exceeding 3 million SOL, forming a long lower shadow), there is a possibility to rebound to the target of $202; if it cannot hold, the $193 stop-loss will be the 'last defense', breaking it means looking at $190, or even $185.
2. Entry zone of $197-$199: it’s not 'random entry', wait for 2 confirmation signals.
The analyst's suggested entry range of $197-$199 looks like a 'bottom-fishing opportunity', but don’t enter blindly, wait for two confirmation signals, otherwise it’s like 'catching falling knives':
Signal 1: The price stays sideways between $197-$199 for more than 1 hour, not breaking below $197, indicating reduced selling pressure.
Signal 2: Occurrence of 'volume rebound', for example, if the price rises from $198 to $200 with an hourly trading volume exceeding 2.5 million SOL, indicating new buyers have entered.
When SOL dropped to $180 in 2024, someone entered at $182 without waiting for confirmation signals, resulting in a drop to $175, losing $7 per unit; later, after waiting for confirmation signals (sideways for 2 hours + volume rebound), they entered at $178, earning $200 in profit. The current situation is similar, entering without confirmation signals may lead to losses at $198, watching the price drop below $195.
3. $205 resistance: the 'first roadblock' for the rebound, only after surpassing it can we look at $206-$210.
Even if SOL can bounce back, the resistance at $205 is difficult to overcome — this position was 'previously the support level, now it has become a resistance level', and there is a $4 million locked-in position in the $205-$208 range (retail investors who chased the price at $205), as soon as the price bounces back to $205, there will be selling orders to free up funds, making it hard to break through.
Only a volume breakthrough above $205 (hourly trading volume exceeding 3.5 million SOL) can see the target of $206, target 2, and target 3 at $210; if it cannot break through $205, the rebound is likely to end in the $202-$205 range and drop back to near $198.
3. The two most common pits: bottom-fishing at $198, cutting losses at $200, don’t make these mistakes!
In the current SOL market, beginners are most likely to make two mistakes, once they step into the pit, they either get deeply trapped or miss out:
1. Pit 1: seeing $198 and bottom-fishing, without waiting for confirmation signals, results in getting trapped at $195.
Some people think 'since it dropped from $213 to $198, a drop of $15, it’s time to bottom fish', entering at $198 without waiting for confirmation signals, resulting in a drop to $195, losing $3 per unit. For example, today, a fan entered fully at $198.5 and is now facing a floating loss of $0.5 per unit, urgently asking 'should I cut losses?' — if $195 breaks, it will still lose $2 per unit.
Remember: 'just because it dropped a lot doesn't mean you can bottom fish', in a bear market, a drop of $20 or $30 is very normal, entering without confirmation signals is no different from 'gambling', winning is luck, losing is the norm.
2. Pit 2: panicking when it breaks below $200, cutting losses at $199, and then it rises back to $200.
Some people treat '200' as a 'life-or-death line', panicking and cutting losses when it breaks below $200, then it rises again back to $200, hitting the thigh. For example, today SOL dropped to $199.2, and someone sold at $199, only to see it rise back to $200.5 within 10 minutes, losing $1.5 per unit while missing the rebound.
$200 is a 'psychological barrier', not a 'real support level', if it breaks and the trading volume doesn’t increase, it may be a 'false breakout' and rise again; only if it breaks below $200 and the trading volume increases (hourly trading volume exceeding 3 million SOL) is it a 'true breakout' that requires a stop-loss.
Four, what should you do now? Hold / wait / enter, three types of people have different strategies.
Whether you are 'already holding', 'holding cash and waiting', or 'want to enter to bottom fish', there are corresponding strategies, don't act blindly:
1. For those already holding (entered above $200): don’t hold your positions, set a stop-loss properly.
If you entered above $200, now facing a floating loss of $2-$15 per unit, don’t hold on to the fantasy of 'it will rebound', quickly set your stop-loss:
Cost basis at $205-$213: set the stop-loss at $194 (which is $1 lower than the $195 support to avoid false breakouts), if it breaks, clear everything, don’t hold until below $193.
Cost basis at $200-$205: set the stop-loss at $196, if it breaks, reduce by 50%, keep the remaining 50% to watch the $195 support.
Don't wait for a rebound: the bear market momentum is strong now, and the rebound space is limited, don’t wait for $205 to free up funds, minimize losses.
2. For those holding cash and waiting: don’t be impulsive, wait for confirmation signals before taking action.
If you are holding cash, don’t randomly buy in the $197-$199 range, wait for two clear signals:
Bottom-fishing signal: SOL holds at $195 + appears confirmation signal (sideways for 1 hour + volume rebound), enter near $198, set the stop-loss at $193, target $202-$205.
Short signal: SOL breaks below $195 with volume (hourly trading volume exceeding 3 million SOL), enter short near $194, set the stop-loss at $198, target $190-$185.
Before there are signals: holding cash is better than anything else, cash is the most valuable in a bear market.
3. For those wanting to bottom fish: try with a small position, don’t go all in.
If you want to bottom fish, don’t go all in, try with a small position of 10%:
Entry point: near $198, position 10%, don’t buy too much;
Stop-loss: $193, if it breaks, accept the loss, don’t average down;
Target: first look at $202, when it reaches, reduce by 50%, the remaining 50% watch $205, if it cannot break through, clear everything.
Remember: when bottom-fishing in a bear market, make a profit of $3-$5 and then exit, don’t be greedy, greed leads to losses.
The last straightforward truth: SOL's current 'bear market momentum' hasn't stopped, don't go against the trend.
From $213 to $198, SOL has proven that 'bear market momentum is real' with 'breaking support, volume drop, and lack of buying pressure', not just 'to scare people'. Now the $195 support is the 'last hope', but whether it can hold depends on large capital; the $197-$199 entry zone is an 'opportunity', but without confirmation signals, it’s a 'trap'.
If you feel helpless and confused in trading and want to learn more about cryptocurrency knowledge and first-hand cutting-edge information, click on the profile picture to follow Lao Luo, and you won't get lost again!
