Is there really a 'sudden death of a bull market' in the crypto world? KOLs shouting 'bear market' are trying to deceive you into handing over your chips at a low price; veteran players abandoning BTC for ETH is not 'picking up chips', but betting it can outperform BTC. The money from ETFs, the ecology, and the institutions is still flooding in; this bull market has just reached halftime. Those who run away will regret it when ETH hits 8000 USD and BTC breaks 150,000 USD!
1. First, tear away KOLs' 'veil': those shouting 'the bull market is over' are secretly increasing their positions.
Don't trust KOLs' 'conscience warnings'; their rhetoric is full of loopholes, and a little investigation reveals the truth — they say 'hurry and escape', but their actions tell a different story, sneaking in their layouts:
1. While shouting 'BTC bubbles have burst', they are secretly converting BTC to ETH, treating retail investors as 'cash machines'.
A few days ago, I came across a KOL with a million followers, slamming the table at the camera: 'BTC will rise to 118,000 USD, seriously overbought! I've already liquidated; you all hurry and sell, or you'll lose everything!' Yet that afternoon, someone uncovered his on-chain address — one hour after the video was released, he transferred 500 BTC (worth about 59 million USD at current prices) to Hyperliquid, converting it all into ETH. Now he holds 12,000 ETH and has opened a long position of 8,000 ETH (worth about 38.4 million USD).
My institutional friend Old Wu laughed at this operation: 'This is a typical case of “rhetoric to harvest retail investors” — first scaring retail investors to sell BTC, while secretly bottom-fishing ETH; by the time retail investors react, ETH has already risen, and later they return to shout, “I’ve always said ETH can rise.” Last year, a KOL did the same, urging retail investors to sell SOL, while he secretly increased his position at 20 USD, later SOL rose to 200 USD, he made 10 times, while retail investors sold at 30 USD.'
Old Zhang in the fan group almost got fooled by this KOL: 'I was about to open the trading software to liquidate BTC at 116,000 USD, but then I saw someone uncovering his on-chain record, discovering he was swapping for ETH. I immediately stopped and also swapped 10 BTC for ETH. Now ETH has risen over 200 USD per coin; if I had listened to him, I would have been crying in the bathroom.'
2. Only mentioning 'K-line peak', completely ignoring 'ETF funds entering', is a selective blindness
Those KOLs shouting 'the bull market is over' keep repeating the same old lines: 'BTC daily top divergence, RSI overbought, MACD dead cross, it's going to drop!' But they never mention — the BTC ETF holdings on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have increased by 28% in the last 30 days, and BlackRock's BUIDL fund added 120 million USD last week; on the ETH side, it's even more exaggerated, Grayscale's ETH trust increased its holdings by 15,000, and the NASDAQ-listed ETHZilla's plan to raise 10 billion dollars has only used 3 billion so far, with the remaining 7 billion all intended to buy ETH.
Old Wu showed me a set of data: 'Before the bull market ended in 2021, institutions were net outflows; at that time, Grayscale reduced its holdings by 5000 BTC in a week. What about now? Institutions have increased their holdings by 10,000 BTC and 20,000 ETH in a week. Can that be the same? KOLs only talk about K-lines, deliberately ignoring the capital side, just to make retail investors unable to see that institutions are seizing the opportunity, obediently handing over their chips.'
Ironically, a KOL in a video held up a K-line chart showing 'BTC top divergence', saying 'it's going to drop 30%', but his computer screen was left on, revealing that his trading software showed his ETH holdings were 5 times that of BTC, and he'd set a reminder to increase his SOL position at 212 USD — 'saying bearish but acting honestly' describes such a person.
2. Are veteran players abandoning BTC for ETH an 'escape from the peak' or a 'bet on the future'? The answer lies in 3 pieces of data.
Now many people ask: 'Are BTC veteran players switching to ETH to help BTC escape the peak and pick up ETH?' Just look at these 3 pieces of data, and you'll know the answer is not 'picking up chips' but 'seizing the future':
1. The ETH ecology is 10 times stronger than BTC: 210 billion in DeFi locked value + 1.2 million daily active NFTs, not 'air'.
The BTC ecology is still mainly 'speculative trading'; apart from transferring and holding coins, there aren't many practical applications. But ETH is different — currently, the total locked value (TVL) in DeFi has exceeded 210 billion USD, five times that of 2021. Uniswap's daily trading volume exceeds 1.8 billion USD, four times more than in 2021; as for NFTs, the daily active wallets on Blur and OpenSea exceed 1.2 million, with celebrities like Jay Chou, Curry, and Musk releasing NFTs on ETH, and quarterly trading volumes exceeding 5 billion USD. Layer 2 (Optimism, Arbitrum) now sees over 3 million daily transactions, with fees at just 0.5 USD per transaction, cheaper than BTC.
Old Wu recently attended the ETH ecological conference and told me: 'Over 200 project parties came to the site, some working on AI + blockchain, some on supply chain finance, and others on metaverse socializing; there were over 30 parties just seeking financing from us. Are there so many practical project parties in the BTC ecology? Not at all! ETH now has 'applications, users, and funds'; veteran players turning to it are betting on it becoming 'new digital gold', not just picking up chips.'
2. Institutions betting on ETH: 10 billion fundraising + 200 million USD increase, not random retail speculation.
This wave of ETH's rise is not driven by retail investors; it's institutions 'sweeping up' — ETHZilla is raising 10 billion USD, intending to buy all ETH, and has only spent 3 billion so far, with 7 billion remaining; BlackRock's BUIDL fund has increased its position by 200 million USD in the last two weeks, increasing its holding ratio from 15% to 22%; even sovereign funds that previously only bought BTC are now starting to allocate ETH; a sovereign fund in the Middle East bought 50,000 ETH last week (about 24 million USD).
These institutions are not 'short-term speculation', but 'long-term layout' — BlackRock's holding period is at least 3 years, ETHZilla's locking period is 5 years. They buy ETH because they see its ecological value, not to make quick money. Old Wu said: 'Institutions understand the market better than retail investors; they won't pick up something worthless. If ETH really doesn't work, would ETHZilla raise 10 billion to buy it? Would BlackRock increase their position? It's impossible.'
3. BTC's 'digital gold' status is shaky: ETH is deflationary + scarce, ready to take over.
Previously, everyone thought 'BTC is digital gold', but now it's different — BTC is still being issued every year, with an inflation rate of 1.7%; while since the EIP-1559 upgrade, every transaction of ETH destroys some ETH. By 2025, 1.2 million ETH have been destroyed, and its circulating supply is getting lower, becoming a 'deflationary asset'. More and more institutions believe that ETH is more suitable as 'digital gold' than BTC — it has both scarcity and ecological value, while BTC only has scarcity without practical application.
That ancient whale who converted 5,000 BTC for ETH (having held BTC since 2018) is the best example — he held BTC for 7 years without moving it, and now suddenly swaps so much for ETH, indicating he believes ETH will outperform BTC in the future. Old Wu calculated for me: 'If ETH really takes over as 'digital gold' and its market value catches up to BTC, with BTC's current market value at 2.2 trillion USD and ETH only at 640 billion USD, there is still 2.4 times space left, corresponding to a price of over 8,000 USD. Veteran players turning now is to secure their position early.'
3. Don't be 'fooled' by the K-lines! What determines a bull market is not a few lines, but these 3 'real logics'.
Those shouting 'the bull market is over' KOLs often talk about K-lines, but they forget: K-lines are merely records of market behavior, not the fundamental reasons for determining trends. What truly determines the bull market are these 3 'real logics'; as long as these 3 logics remain unchanged, the bull market won't end:
1. Capital logic: If ETF is still entering, the money hasn't left, and the bull market won't end.
The essence of a bull market is 'capital-driven' — as long as money keeps flowing in, the bull market won't end. Currently, the net inflow of BTC ETF exceeds 200 million USD weekly, and ETH ETF exceeds 150 million USD. Institutional funds, retail funds, and overseas funds are still rushing into the crypto world; the USDT balance on exchanges has increased by 15% in the last 30 days, indicating that money hasn't left; it's just shifting positions (from BTC to ETH, SOL, and other ecological coins).
Old Wu said: 'Before the end of the 2021 bull market, the USDT balance on exchanges fell by 30%, and ETF funds were net outflows. Now it's completely the opposite; money is still coming in. How can this be the end of the bull market? KOLs only look at K-lines and not at capital, which is just nonsense.'
2. Ecological logic: The ecology of coins like ETH and SOL is rising; their value will increase.
The long-term support for coin prices is 'ecological value' — ETH's DeFi and NFTs are rising, SOL's transaction speed and developers are increasing; the value of these coins is rising, and naturally, the prices will rise. The bear market of 2018 happened because the coins at that time had no ecology and were all air coins; now it's different. ETH and SOL have real applications and millions of users; even if they drop in the short term, they will rise back in the long term.
A Kai in the fan group got stuck in ETH at 4,800 USD in 2021 and is now at 4,957 USD; he said: 'I didn't sell because I saw the ecology of ETH improving. Layer 2 solved the fee issue, and the number of users is increasing; I knew it would eventually rise again. Those who only look at K-lines don't understand the importance of ecology; they think a drop in K-lines means a bear market, which is too naive.'
3. Institutional logic: Wall Street is not here to 'rescue', but to 'make big money'.
Don't think Wall Street institutions are 'Bodhisattvas' coming to rescue retail investors — they come in to make big money. To make big money, they need to stretch the bull market longer and push prices higher. In 2021, institutions hardly entered the market, and the bull market only lasted a year; now that institutions are heavily invested, how could it end in just six months? They need to push it to at least 8,000 USD for ETH and 150,000 USD for BTC to make enough profits to leave.
Old Wu revealed to me: 'Our institutional target is for this bull market to see ETH at 8000 USD and BTC at 180,000 USD. We're only halfway there; how can it end? KOLs shouting 'bear market' are either unable to get their hands on chips or want to buy at a lower price; don't believe them.'
4. What should we do now? Don't listen to KOLs, follow the 'top logic' to profit.
What we should do now is not to panic and sell but to follow the 'top logic' from institutions, veteran players, and ecology. These 3 things must be done:
1. Don't sell BTC recklessly; focus on laying out ETH and SOL, these ecological coins.
If you have BTC, don't listen to KOLs to liquidate; keep 50% as a base; for the remaining 50%, you can shift some to ETH (currently at 4957 USD, add to your position at 4700-4800 USD) and SOL (add to your position at 200-205 USD). The growth of these ecological coins will be 2-3 times that of BTC.
Old Zhang's current position is '50% BTC + 30% ETH + 20% SOL'; he says: 'I'm not greedy; BTC is stable, ETH and SOL rise quickly. With this mix, even if BTC doesn't rise, ETH and SOL can still help me make money, which is better than being all in on BTC.'
2. Don't just stare at the K-line, pay more attention to ETF funds and ecological data
Spend 10 minutes every day checking the inflow of ETF funds (can be checked on the CME official website), the DeFi locked amounts of ETH (can be viewed on DeFi Llama), and the trading volume of SOL (can be checked on Solscan). These data are 100 times more reliable than K-lines. If the ETF is still entering, DeFi locked amounts are still rising, and trading volumes are increasing, just hold; if these data start to drop, then consider reducing your position.
A Kai now checks these data daily: 'I don't care how the K-lines move; as long as ETH's DeFi locked value continues to rise, I won't sell. If the locked value drops by 10%, I'll consider reducing my position, so I won't be deceived by the K-lines.'
3. Follow the 'top layouts', don't be misled by KOLs.
Old Luo has been saying 'follow the institutions and veteran players'; now institutions are increasing their positions in ETH and SOL, and veteran players are turning to ETH. We should layout accordingly and not be scared by KOLs' 'bear market rhetoric'. Those who followed Old Luo into ETH at 4700 USD are now making over 200 USD per coin, while those who sold following KOLs have long missed the boat.
Old Wu said: 'Those who make money in the crypto world are always the ones who 'follow the top players'; institutions and veteran players are the top players. Wherever they go, we go; this is much more reliable than guessing ourselves.'
The last honest truth: When KOLs shout 'bear market', it is the 'assurance' of the bull market.
If one day no one is shouting 'bear market' and everyone is saying 'the bull market can go to the sky', then it's time to be truly cautious; now KOLs are still shouting 'bear market', indicating there are still many retail investors who haven't entered the market, and institutions are still seizing the opportunity. The bull market is still far from over.
Remember: Wall Street institutions are not here for rescue; they are here to make big money; veteran players turning to ETH are not picking up chips; they are betting on the future. The money from ETFs is still entering, the ecology is still exploding; this bull market should rise to at least 8000 USD for ETH and 150,000 USD for BTC before it ends.
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