How competitive is the airdrop space now? I scoured Discord communities, on-chain monitoring tools (Nansen, Dune) as early as 8 AM, and even asked three veterans in the airdrop space; throughout the day, only FreeStyle Classic (token FST) barely meets the standard of 'worth a glance' — but let me make it clear, this is not a 'scoop opportunity,' I’ve uncovered the project's real situation, and brothers who want to participate must first understand these three practical risks to avoid unnecessary trouble.
Let’s first talk about FST's 'real foundation': it focuses on 'street basketball culture + Web3', which is not just hot air. I checked the project’s Discord (currently about 5000 people) and Twitter, and there are indeed some basketball bloggers interacting, and the core gameplay can be implemented — for example, users can mint player NFTs (the current test version has gone live, mint price is 0.01 ETH), holding NFTs allows participation in community voting (such as deciding the rules for the next online basketball game), and they can earn FST tokens through NFT profit sharing (the official says an annualized return of about 5%-8%); FST tokens are mainly used for transactions within the ecosystem (such as buying NFTs, event tickets), community governance voting, and rewarding players with peripheral exchanges. This kind of 'vertical culture + Web3' model has precedents, such as StepN in 2023 (sports + Web3), which became popular with running shoe NFTs, so FST is at least stronger in 'implementability' compared to those vaporware projects that can't even make a proper website, but it’s still limited to that.
Here comes the key point! The three 'real risks' I've dug up are more important than the highlights touted by the project party, and they are the most common pitfalls for casual players:
First, the 'three no project' is substantiated, and the ceiling of returns is visible: I checked Crunchbase, Web3 financing databases (DeFi Pulse, Coingecko financing section), and even asked friends in VC, but I couldn't find any institutional financing records for FST — no VC endorsement means two issues: first, the project lacks funds for promotion; currently, the community of 5000 people has an activity level of less than 10% (average daily messages under 500), making it very difficult to attract new users; second, there are no resources to connect with large platforms, making it hard for the ecosystem to grow. I previously dealt with similar three no projects, such as a certain trendy toy airdrop at the end of 2023 (I won't name it, as I don't want everyone to dig up old accounts), at that time, the airdrop token only rose by a maximum of 18% after going live on a small exchange, and before I could sell, the early team dumped 2 million tokens (accounting for 15% of the circulation), causing the price to crash, and after deducting gas fees, I ended up losing 0.2 ETH. This time, the returns on FST are likely not going to be much better; at best, you might earn a little money for bubble tea, so don’t expect to “double” your investment.
Second, there has already been a 'holding airdrop' on small exchanges, and it's basically hopeless for FST to list on Binance: I checked the announcements from three small exchanges (a certain Southeast Asian platform and a certain Russian-speaking platform), and FST had already conducted a 'holding airdrop' on August 10 — holding these two platforms' tokens (minimum holding of 100 U) allowed users to receive 100-500 FST tokens, with about 2000 participants at that time. Industry insiders know that large exchanges like Binance and OK are particularly cautious about 'tokens that have first been airdropped on small platforms': first, to avoid giving users duplicate benefits (many large platform users also use small platforms, so another airdrop equals double giving); second, tokens that are first launched on small platforms are often hoarded by casual players (some people used multiple accounts to collect tens of thousands of FST), making it easy to be dumped once listed on large platforms. I asked a friend in the crypto space who works as a listing intermediary, and he said, 'The probability of FST being listed on Binance is less than 5%,' and it’s highly likely that it will only be traded on small exchanges later, with liquidity being so poor that I checked the depth of one of the small platforms, and the total orders from buy one to buy five only added up to 20,000 U; if you want to sell 10,000 U, you would at least need to drop the price to 80% of the original price to sell out.
Third, the launch time is 'during off-peak hours', and the risk of a short-term dump is high: the project party announced that it will launch at 5 PM today, which is a particularly cunning time — it happens to be during the afternoon trading lull (European and American users have not yet woken up, Asian users are about to get off work), making liquidity the worst. Previously, I encountered a similar project that also launched at 5 PM, and within 10 minutes of going live, it rose by 22%, but was immediately dumped by the early team with 8 million tokens (accounting for 20% of the circulation), causing the price to plummet. I chased in at a high price and ended up losing 35% in half an hour, ultimately having to cut my losses. Therefore, even if you want to participate in FST, don’t enter the market within an hour before it goes live; it’s best to wait until after 6 PM (after Asian users get off work, liquidity slightly improves), and see where the price stabilizes before deciding whether to try a small position.
Finally, let's provide everyone with 'practical advice', clearly divided into two types of players:
Casual airdrop players: If you have some spare cash in your wallet (for example, within 100 U), and you have time to watch the market, you can claim the airdrop (currently, claiming the airdrop requires completing tasks on Discord: following the project's Twitter, retweeting posts, joining the community, which takes about 10 minutes to complete), but you must set a stop-loss — once the price drops more than 10% after going live, no matter how much you lose, you should run quickly, and don't think it will 'bounce back'; if it rises, sell in batches once it exceeds 15%, don't be greedy.
Players looking to speculate on returns: just give up! A three no project + small platform launch, with no institutional backing and no large funds entering later on, even if it rises a bit in the short term, it is just a fleeting moment and can easily trap you. It’s better to focus your energy on projects that have institutional endorsement later, such as a certain Web3 game I’ve been watching recently (backed by a leading VC), which is expected to release an airdrop at the end of the month; such projects at least have financial support and much lower risk.
Additionally, a reminder: now in the airdrop space, 'bad money drives out good,' reliable projects are becoming fewer and fewer, and many people, fearing they might miss out, end up participating in any project, leading to either losing gas fees or getting trapped. I will later share 'quality airdrops that have been tested' in my fan group to help everyone filter out bad projects; following the crowd is much more reliable than searching aimlessly for good opportunities.
