Last weekend, BTC staged a dramatic showdown between bulls and bears — at 2 AM on Saturday, it briefly surged to the $117,000 mark, just $3,000 shy of the previous high. Many people had just shouted 'Charging towards $120,000' when the market turned down. By Sunday night, it had retreated to $111,000, with a maximum fluctuation of over $6,000 within 24 hours, an increase of 40% in volatility compared to last week. Market sentiment quickly shifted from 'frenzy' to 'caution'.
Looking at the real state of the spot market: currently, the buying momentum in the $112,000-$114,000 range has clearly weakened. The 4-hour RSI indicator has dropped to a low of 38.2, getting closer to the oversold warning line of 30. More critically, selling pressure is deepening — the order book on mainstream exchanges shows that the selling volume below $113,000 has increased by 27% since Friday, but the proportion of buy-side active orders has dropped from 58% to 42%. Even though trading volume remains stable at an average of $28 billion per day, buyers' confidence is showing signs of 'not holding up'.
Speculative sentiment in the futures market is also cooling down: the perpetual contract leverage has dropped from 2.3 times last week to 1.8 times, a new low for the month; however, the funding rate has rebounded from negative 0.01% to 0.03%, indicating that 'naked short' investors are decreasing. However, in the past 24 hours of liquidation data, the proportion of passive long liquidations reached 62%, while active short openings decreased by 18%, showing that speculative funds are clearly 'contracting their positions'.
Attention is needed on the ETF front — the 9 spot BTC ETFs listed in the U.S. saw a total outflow of $1 billion last week! Among them, the largest, GBTC, had an outflow of $680 million in a single week, the largest single-week outflow since May. Additionally, the average daily trading volume of ETFs has dropped from $4.5 billion to $3 billion, and the number of large institutional trades has decreased from 45 per day to 28, clearly indicating that institutional 'interest in entering' is cooling off.
On-chain data also reveals signals: the number of active addresses daily fell below 950,000 (last month's average was still 1.2 million), and the average transaction fee dropped from $42 two weeks ago to $18, indicating a decline in participation from ordinary users. Interestingly, however, the daily on-chain transfer volume actually increased by 15%, but a closer look reveals that 80% of transfers are small to medium-sized transactions of 10-100 BTC. The fluctuation rate of large institutional addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) is less than 0.5%, clearly showing that large funds are still 'watching'.
The core contradiction in the market is now very clear: from chasing highs at the beginning of the month to being cautious now, the key will depend on whether liquidity stabilizes next — in the short term, we need to closely monitor the $110,000 threshold. If it cannot hold, it may very well drop to $105,000; however, if ETF outflows can slow down and the RSI returns to a reasonable range, there might be a rebound back to $115,000.
