After the 'rollercoaster' experience, retail investors in ETH are likely feeling anxious — on August 15, it surged to $4980, but in just 10 days, it plummeted to $4430, a drop of 500 points has trapped many who chased high prices into the 'trapped zone' of $4900-5000. But don’t rush to sell at a loss! ETH is currently on its 'lifeline', whether it can rebound or if you should buy the dip, after reading this you’ll have a direction.
One, first understand: what state is ETH currently in?
Throughout August, ETH has actually been in a 'slow bull' trend, climbing from below $3800 to almost touching the $5000 mark; many thought it could break the previous high. But at $4900-5000, it encountered 'hard resistance' — this is a long-term supply zone, and selling pressure has directly suppressed the upward momentum.
The good news is: ETH is still above the upward trend line! In the 4-hour chart, it can be clearly seen that the lows are consistently rising (from $3800 to $4100 to $4380). As long as it doesn't break this trend, the bulls still have a chance to counterattack. The key now is the $4400 level — this is both a trend line support and a small local bottom; if it holds, there’s still hope, but if it breaks, it might need to 'step down another level'.
Two, why did it drop today? Two major reasons that hit hard, retail investors need to be cautious!
Many people ask, 'Why did it suddenly drop when it was doing well a few days ago?' It's not 'sudden'; there were two signals that had already given warnings:
$5000 trapped positions 'crashed' + daily momentum stalled
In the 30-minute chart, it can be seen that ETH has been pressed by a downward trend line, and any attempts to rebound have failed. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dropped to 46, indicating that buying pressure is weakening — fewer people are rushing to buy, making it hard to support the price.
Short-term funds are 'taking profits and running', with spot outflow exceeding $50 million
Coinglass real-time data shows that on August 26, ETH experienced a net outflow of $54.7 million! This is not 'panic selling', but rather funds that previously bought at low levels are taking profits (after all, it rose from $3800 to $4980, earning over $1000 per coin). However, this 'profit-taking' coinciding with a technical pullback can easily cause panic among retail investors.
However, there is also a good signal: although the MACD is still in negative territory, the histogram has started to 'flatten' — indicating that the selling pressure from the bears is weakening, and it might soon stop dropping.
Three, technical indicators are 'flashing': these 3 levels will determine whether it goes up or down next!
Don’t just focus on price fluctuations; pay attention to these key levels, which are much more reliable than random guessing:
Four, 24-hour outlook: 3 operational suggestions for retail investors, don't fall into pitfalls!
The next 24 hours is a 'life or death' situation, different scenarios correspond to different actions, don't rush to buy the dip:
✅ If it holds the $4380-4400 level:
The bulls may first rebound to $4600 (to relieve part of the short-term trapped positions), then push to $4750. If it can break through $4840, the door to $5000 will open again — at that point, liquidity will be sufficient, and the rebound space will be larger.
Action: Don't panic sell if you're holding, those without positions can try small positions (but don't go all in!), the first target is to look at $4600.
❌ If it breaks below $4380:
The first target may drop to the 200-day moving average at $4100 (there's strong support here, and it is likely to rebound); if $4100 cannot hold, it will fall back to the $3750 'demand zone' (many people previously bought here, so buying pressure will be more).
Action: Don't hold on stubbornly! Reduce positions first, and wait to see whether to re-enter at $4100 or $3750.
⚠️ The most likely scenario:
Currently, the RSI is stable, MACD is no longer declining, and capital inflow is inconsistent; ETH is very likely to 'consolidate' between $4380 and $4600, waiting for clear signals before taking action.
Key point: Focus on the $4400 'pivot' — if it holds, it leans towards bullish; if it breaks, it leans towards bearish.
Lastly, let me ask:
Are you currently holding and observing, looking to buy the dip, or waiting for opportunities with no positions? Share your trading thoughts in the comments! Like and follow Ming Ge, and in the next 24 hours, we will track the battle at $4400 for ETH in real-time. Any new signals will be updated immediately to help you avoid pitfalls~#ETH
