The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting are out, packed with information yet full of "conflicted literature" 👇
📉 Economic hidden dangers buried:
The minutes bluntly state that "the trade war brings great uncertainty," and non-farm data has been revised down (what happened to the strong job market?), concerns about economic slowdown are intensifying, but the inflation monster is still not caged!
💸 Interest rate cut expectations crash:
The market is frantically lowering interest rate cut expectations—Polymarket data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has dropped to 68%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 2%... what happened to the promised "flood of liquidity"? Is the Fed going to be dovish or hawkish?
🤷♂️ In plain language:
The U.S. economy is like a “giant running with cracks,” surface data looks fine, but underneath it’s all just holding on. Fear of a collapse with rate hikes, fear of inflation with rate cuts, the Fed is in a dilemma!
🪙 Impact on the crypto world: Short-term panic, long-term opportunity?
Bearish pressure: If rate cuts are delayed, the dollar strengthens, funds may flow back to traditional markets, BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure (note that if ETH breaks key support levels, it may trigger a chain reaction of selling).
🧠 How should savvy players operate?
Don’t be swayed by short-term emotions! If BTC can hold above $100,000, and ETFs continue to flow in, there will still be opportunities for medium to long-term positioning. Remember: the more hesitant the Fed is, the more sensitive the market becomes, volatility = opportunity!
In summary:
The Fed is playing Tai Chi, the crypto world is playing heartbeat. There's no rush to buy the dip, wait for clear signals before taking action!
