On this passionate and risky stage of the cryptocurrency market, every data release is like a heavy bomb, and every change in technical levels resembles a turning point in battle. The key data of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 16 in the U.S. is about to be revealed, and BTC is stuck at a critical technical node. Whether it will make a desperate counterattack or fall drastically will be unveiled tonight!
Let's first talk about the news. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. are the 'barometer' of economic conditions. This data reflects the activity level of the American labor market. If the data performs poorly, it means a sluggish job market, increasing layoffs, consumer confidence being hit, and the economy may fall into recession. The traditional financial market will react instantly, and the stock market may plummet significantly, causing funds to flee risk assets in a panic. As an emerging field of risk assets, the cryptocurrency market will also find it hard to remain unaffected. A large amount of capital may withdraw from the cryptocurrency market, and as the leader of the cryptocurrency space, BTC's price will inevitably face immense pressure and may experience a significant decline.
Conversely, if the initial jobless claims are lower than expected, it indicates a strong job market and a positive economic outlook. Market confidence will be greatly boosted, and retail investors will be more willing to take risks. Funds will flood into the cryptocurrency market like a burst dam, pushing BTC prices soaring.
Let's analyze from a technical perspective. Looking at the 1-hour K-line chart of BTC, it resembles an intense offensive and defensive battle. The upper resistance level is a solid fortress that has repeatedly blocked the bulls' attacks. Whenever the price approaches this position, it encounters strong selling pressure, like an invisible wall pushing the price back hard. The key support level is the last line of defense for the bulls. Once it is effectively broken, the bears will invade without resistance, and the price may initiate a rapid decline. The support level below is BTC's 'life-saving bottom line'; once lost, the consequences are unimaginable. Currently, BTC is oscillating back and forth between these key positions, with both bulls and bears in a deadlock, like two masters competing in inner strength—whoever can't hold on first will face a disastrous defeat.
I personally believe that after the data is released tonight, BTC will inevitably choose a direction to break through. If the data is favorable, the bulls are expected to use this momentum to break through the resistance level and initiate a rising trend; if the data is unfavorable, the bears will pursue the victory, break the support level, and the price may plummet.
For retail investors, tonight is a critical moment. Before the data is released, it is essential to stay calm and not act blindly. Set stop-loss and take-profit points, just like fastening a seatbelt for your investments. After the data is released, act decisively based on the breakout situation. If it breaks through the resistance level, it may be appropriate to increase positions; if it falls below the support level, decisive stop-loss must be taken.
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