Bull-Bear battle, the decisive point is today! ETH's hourly line is stuck at the critical watershed of 4442; whether it goes up or down is just a thought away, and a single pebble in the news can create a hundred-meter wave.
Technical aspect:
Current trends, in short, are a typical entanglement during a 'news vacuum period.' The Bollinger Bands have tightened to the extreme, with the upper band at 4510, the lower band at 4395, and the middle at 4453, which is like a noose tightly binding the price—this narrow range of fluctuation indicates that a big movement is about to emerge.
Key levels must be etched in your mind:
Ceiling: 4498. Previous high strong resistance, three failed attempts to break through, heavy selling pressure.
Bull-Bear Watershed: 4442. If the hourly line does not stabilize here, short-term sentiment will turn bearish.
Lifeline: 4380. If it breaks here, bottom-fishing funds will tentatively enter.
Hard bottom: 4332. If it breaks, panic selling is likely to occur.
The trading volume has shrunk to 22,000 units, indicating that the old investors are waiting for news and dare not act lightly. RSI three lines are stuck between 36-47, neither oversold nor strong, purely in a 'standby state.'
News aspect: How will the UK data affect ETH?
This afternoon, the UK will announce the August house price index month-on-month. This data may seem unrelated to the crypto market, but it actually hides secrets!
If the data exceeds expectations favorably, traditional market funds may prefer to stay in real estate or the stock market, making it easier for hot money in the crypto market to flow out, and ETH will likely face pressure; conversely, if the data disappoints, funds will flow into assets like Bitcoin and ETH for profit.
Last month, on the day when the US non-farm payroll data surprised, ETH surged 3% in one hour. This is a typical market driven by macro data—today's critical time point is after the data is released; make sure to keep a close watch on the market!
Operation suggestions
My strategy today as captain is one word: wait!
The daytime continues to fluctuate, with the evening session breaking through on the data.
If the data is bearish → stabilizing at 4380 may lead to a rebound to 4442 to test the breakout;
If the data is positive → directly attack the strong resistance at 4498, but the trading volume needs to increase to over 300,000 to confirm its validity;
Worst-case scenario: If the data triggers a drop below the 'hard bottom' of 4332, the short-term trend will turn bearish, and we need to be cautious in the 4280 area.
Recalling the ETF hype at the end of May, ETH surged 20% in a single day, but immediately crashed back to the starting point after the news fell flat—markets always react to expectations ahead of time, so don’t wait for the news to chase; the price will have already run far.
Before the UK August Nationwide house price index month-on-month is released, no one should pretend to be a prophet.
