✨Tonight Powell's speech will not ease up!
July PPI surged 0.9% month-on-month (the largest increase in three years), especially service prices rising 1.1%, indicating increased cost pressures for businesses.
The high tariffs mean that companies like Nike and Adidas will raise prices, and inflation will make the Federal Reserve more cautious in its decision-making.
Tonight's speech is expected to be evasive, and the U.S. stock market hasn't seen a direct plunge, so the market isn't in a collapse for Powell; it's highly likely that he will continue to say that we need to see data performance.
Three scenarios for tonight's speech and their probabilities:
55% ---- Non-substantive speech, focusing on academic topics (such as labor market transformation, AI replacing workers), avoiding hints of rate cuts, U.S. stocks fluctuate, U.S. Treasury yields rise slightly, and cryptocurrencies test support downwards to see the market reaction.
25%------Moderately releasing signals for rate cuts, hinting at "conditional rate cuts" (dependent on subsequent data), while announcing reforms in the policy framework. U.S. stocks rebound, gold breaks through 3400 USD, and cryptocurrencies quickly spike.
20% ----- Absence or hawkish dampening, not clearly supporting rate cuts, emphasizing inflation risks, U.S. Treasuries are sold off, rate cut bets lose 50 basis points, and cryptocurrencies continue to plummet.
Tonight will be particularly important, and it's highly likely to be mainly evasive, with no substantial breakthroughs. #杰克逊霍尔会议 #加密市场回调