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It's not Powell who is affecting the market, but Trump. The macro focus should be on Trump; for the market to reverse, at least one of these two points must be addressed.
On the 28th, I warned that there were risks in the market. Trump has revived tariffs, and now he is continuously changing the narrative, criticizing Powell for influencing the market, claiming that the data has been manipulated by the Department of Labor, and that he is the just one.
In fact, there are problems with all of this. Thinking from the largest perspective, when Powell releases uncertainty, Trump uses the tariff stick to pressure many countries to push Powell. If Powell does not yield, the market will continue to face inflation due to tariffs.
Some might say that the market has already digested the tariffs, but is that the case? Tariffs bring uncertainty to the market, and uncertainty will inevitably lead to risk capital withdrawing and waiting on the sidelines. Powell has also indicated that a rate cut in September is unlikely, which poses the biggest risk.
The market has become sluggish and capital is withdrawing due to dual uncertainties. To solve this problem, one side in the current market must yield, but from a timing perspective, Powell will not yield. Even if he does, it will be after other data is reviewed to see if the data is optimized enough to concede to Trump.
So will Trump yield? No, with Trump reintroducing tariffs, the possibility of him yielding is very low.
Therefore, from a macro perspective, the market trend is quite clear:
1. The implementation of equal tariffs on August 7. If expectations are good and tariffs are successfully implemented, this wave of decline may end, and some risk capital may return.
2. Next week, two centrist Federal Reserve chairs will release positive news, and then Powell may verbally yield (though this is very unlikely).
3. The next inflation data may perform remarkably, and the market believes this data supports Powell's rate cut in September. (End of August)
From a macro timeline perspective, the only opportunity at the beginning of the month is for Trump to abandon the panic over equal tariffs or for investors to confirm that the shoe has dropped; otherwise, a definitive reversal in the market is likely to occur only in the middle to late part of this month. #美国加征关税 #美联储利率决议
On the 28th, I warned that there were risks in the market. Trump has revived tariffs, and now he is continuously changing the narrative, criticizing Powell for influencing the market, claiming that the data has been manipulated by the Department of Labor, and that he is the just one.
In fact, there are problems with all of this. Thinking from the largest perspective, when Powell releases uncertainty, Trump uses the tariff stick to pressure many countries to push Powell. If Powell does not yield, the market will continue to face inflation due to tariffs.
Some might say that the market has already digested the tariffs, but is that the case? Tariffs bring uncertainty to the market, and uncertainty will inevitably lead to risk capital withdrawing and waiting on the sidelines. Powell has also indicated that a rate cut in September is unlikely, which poses the biggest risk.
The market has become sluggish and capital is withdrawing due to dual uncertainties. To solve this problem, one side in the current market must yield, but from a timing perspective, Powell will not yield. Even if he does, it will be after other data is reviewed to see if the data is optimized enough to concede to Trump.
So will Trump yield? No, with Trump reintroducing tariffs, the possibility of him yielding is very low.
Therefore, from a macro perspective, the market trend is quite clear:
1. The implementation of equal tariffs on August 7. If expectations are good and tariffs are successfully implemented, this wave of decline may end, and some risk capital may return.
2. Next week, two centrist Federal Reserve chairs will release positive news, and then Powell may verbally yield (though this is very unlikely).
3. The next inflation data may perform remarkably, and the market believes this data supports Powell's rate cut in September. (End of August)
From a macro timeline perspective, the only opportunity at the beginning of the month is for Trump to abandon the panic over equal tariffs or for investors to confirm that the shoe has dropped; otherwise, a definitive reversal in the market is likely to occur only in the middle to late part of this month. #美国加征关税 #美联储利率决议
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Is the non-farm data fake? Is it all Powell's fault? Perhaps everyone has forgotten that Trump is the source of uncertainty. #美国加征关税 #美国初请失业金人数
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I waited for this Ethereum injection on Friday, waited all night without it, and looking back, Ethereum is indeed very strong. I will never trust E-Guardians again.
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The narrative is quite good, but execution has contradictions - Is HUMA a strong project prepared for RWA? Where are the project's pain points?
In the investment market, I pay more attention to whether the underlying chip control is concentrated. Narratives can work, especially during good market conditions, as most people will buy into the narrative.
However, it is often because of the narrative that more people get deeply involved. I remember when I was mining, there was a user who made his mining machine for the Thor coin, and there was also Odin. He burned Odin to exchange for Thor, increasing its value, and mined Odin. This consumption mechanism is actually quite good and can last for a while, but when they claim to surpass Bitcoin, while Bitcoin is our goal, I find such slogans empty talk. Because on a deeper level, these surpassing claims are related to the capital driving them.
However, it is often because of the narrative that more people get deeply involved. I remember when I was mining, there was a user who made his mining machine for the Thor coin, and there was also Odin. He burned Odin to exchange for Thor, increasing its value, and mined Odin. This consumption mechanism is actually quite good and can last for a while, but when they claim to surpass Bitcoin, while Bitcoin is our goal, I find such slogans empty talk. Because on a deeper level, these surpassing claims are related to the capital driving them.
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0801 Daily Update: Trump's impact on the market has begun, and the market has found direction. Bulls can only eat rebounds as the market digests.
$BTC Opinion: Bitcoin is already close to the low for the day; shorting is not appropriate. Anyway, there is no position. Last time there was a rebound around 114800, this time there are still opportunities around 113700 for a rebound. The target is about 11600-11700; it's time to exit because the market is now encountering significant downward pressure and major support. Support can lead to a rebound, but if it continues to fall, then the market will test lower.
$ETH Opinion: Ethereum still follows a major upward logic. Under the current upward logic, there will be several levels of support, with the most recent being around 3550-3580. Basically, entering the market on the right side when it's near can work. The upper pressure is around 3720, but it may not be that strong. If there is profit, it's essential to secure the principal and take profits.
$BTC Opinion: Bitcoin is already close to the low for the day; shorting is not appropriate. Anyway, there is no position. Last time there was a rebound around 114800, this time there are still opportunities around 113700 for a rebound. The target is about 11600-11700; it's time to exit because the market is now encountering significant downward pressure and major support. Support can lead to a rebound, but if it continues to fall, then the market will test lower.
$ETH Opinion: Ethereum still follows a major upward logic. Under the current upward logic, there will be several levels of support, with the most recent being around 3550-3580. Basically, entering the market on the right side when it's near can work. The upper pressure is around 3720, but it may not be that strong. If there is profit, it's essential to secure the principal and take profits.
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Before posting the video, I want to remind everyone once again that with AI, conducting project research and analysis has become very simple. This has also caused many people to lose their ability to think critically. AI only aggregates and analyzes data; ultimately, human judgment is still needed to assess the market.
So it's fine to say a project has advantages, but what are its problems? Moreover, the current market has risks. Isn't claiming advantages just a way to deceive people into investing based on value? #加密市场回调
So it's fine to say a project has advantages, but what are its problems? Moreover, the current market has risks. Isn't claiming advantages just a way to deceive people into investing based on value? #加密市场回调
To be honest, sometimes I can't understand those bloggers who clearly see that the market has started to have problems but still talk about which projects are good and which have advantages from high positions.
After this round of beating, don't you still know that the so-called advantages and the so-called impressive projects are all nonsense? The only thing that’s real is they want your money! #巨鲸动向 #BNB创新高
After this round of beating, don't you still know that the so-called advantages and the so-called impressive projects are all nonsense? The only thing that’s real is they want your money! #巨鲸动向 #BNB创新高
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You really said it right, that's how it is. Last year, before the election, they started cutting interest rates to support Biden.
Damn it, if the Democrats had cut interest rates earlier, the old man would be targeting Trump.
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Set aside the macro and focus more on technical positions; the market cannot be wrong. Remember, our role is to be a part of the trading market, and we should pay more attention to market behavior. #美联储利率决议 #上市公司加密储备战略 #内容挖矿
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0731 Daily Update: Macro and micro techniques differ, pay attention to risks and also to our identity
The macro market is full of uncertainties, requiring us to be cautious, and to always have our profit and loss limits in place when facing uncertain markets.
Trump's threats to the market and uncertainties will lead to frequent large fluctuations, with the focus being on the speculation of interest rate cuts in September; during this process, many wave opportunities are expected in the market.
$BTC Opinion: BTC is still okay for me, it remains a high-level oscillation logic, not much to say, waiting for direction, the high level is still relatively weak, in a high position of turnover.
$ETH Opinion: I bought Ethereum around 3763, and unlike my macro view, I will still buy Ethereum based on technical analysis, and then look for waves as the situation demands; as long as there are technical opportunities in the market, don't miss out.
The intraday target for Ethereum is the daily level resistance, and if the daily line still needs to adjust, then the daily pressure is between 3850-3820, just pay attention to this position. The support below is around 3720.
#美联储利率决议 #上市公司加密储备战略 #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
The macro market is full of uncertainties, requiring us to be cautious, and to always have our profit and loss limits in place when facing uncertain markets.
Trump's threats to the market and uncertainties will lead to frequent large fluctuations, with the focus being on the speculation of interest rate cuts in September; during this process, many wave opportunities are expected in the market.
$BTC Opinion: BTC is still okay for me, it remains a high-level oscillation logic, not much to say, waiting for direction, the high level is still relatively weak, in a high position of turnover.
$ETH Opinion: I bought Ethereum around 3763, and unlike my macro view, I will still buy Ethereum based on technical analysis, and then look for waves as the situation demands; as long as there are technical opportunities in the market, don't miss out.
The intraday target for Ethereum is the daily level resistance, and if the daily line still needs to adjust, then the daily pressure is between 3850-3820, just pay attention to this position. The support below is around 3720.
#美联储利率决议 #上市公司加密储备战略 #美国与欧盟达成关税协议
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Is Trump being unethical again? Are tariffs coming back? Powell's confrontation with Trump will have serious consequences. The tariffs will continue on the 31st, and the interest rate decision is as expected. The feared event is finally coming. #美联储利率决议 #币安Alpha上新 #美国AI行动计划 #内容挖矿
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The Beginning of the Black Swan on the 31st? The World is About to be Turned Over Again, Trump is Acting Too Quickly, and the Current Situation is Unforeseen
The interest rate decision was expected; a rate cut in July is just talk, but that doesn't mean Trump will turn the table. What has Powell done to make Trump start flipping tables? What will the impact of raising tariffs on the market be?
On the eve of tariffs, Trump continued to pressure Powell ten minutes early, asking, 'I heard there's going to be a rate cut in September?'
What Trump didn't expect was that Powell continued to show him no respect, still maintaining a taijiquan and ambiguous attitude, which aligns perfectly with my expectations of Powell and the centrists in my previous article—this is completely normal.
On the eve of tariffs, Trump continued to pressure Powell ten minutes early, asking, 'I heard there's going to be a rate cut in September?'
What Trump didn't expect was that Powell continued to show him no respect, still maintaining a taijiquan and ambiguous attitude, which aligns perfectly with my expectations of Powell and the centrists in my previous article—this is completely normal.
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I almost forgot that someone told me today that the anniversary celebration should have a price increase, right?
The possibility of a price increase during the anniversary celebration is very low; instead, it seems that the market is starting to change hands now. The market will only rally when they think it's time to push the prices up. #以太坊十周年
The possibility of a price increase during the anniversary celebration is very low; instead, it seems that the market is starting to change hands now. The market will only rally when they think it's time to push the prices up. #以太坊十周年
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My concubine has already sold about half of the 3800, the remaining is either to break even or to see how it goes, the target is around 3640. #以太坊十周年
Analysis before the interest rate decision: Powell is likely to clash hard with Trump. Insights from the three factions before the decision. How is your holding doing?
A few days ago, I cleared my holdings, leaving only Ethereum in crypto; the risk is too high. Basically, it’s a situation where a lot of selling is happening at high prices, and there is significant market divergence. So, on the eve of the interest rate decision, what are the views of the three factions guiding the Federal Reserve, and which has the loudest voice and highest probability?
The results of the Federal Reserve's July meeting are about to be revealed, with GDP, PCE inflation, and unemployment data being released in quick succession. But what most moves the market is the escalating disagreement within the Federal Reserve over rate cuts. The three major camps are vying for power, making whether to cut rates in September a true 'suspense drama.'
The results of the Federal Reserve's July meeting are about to be revealed, with GDP, PCE inflation, and unemployment data being released in quick succession. But what most moves the market is the escalating disagreement within the Federal Reserve over rate cuts. The three major camps are vying for power, making whether to cut rates in September a true 'suspense drama.'
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Analysis before the interest rate decision: Powell is likely to clash hard with Trump. Insights from the three factions before the decision. How is your holding doing?
A few days ago, I cleared my holdings, leaving only Ethereum in crypto; the risk is too high. Basically, it’s a situation where a lot of selling is happening at high prices, and there is significant market divergence. So, on the eve of the interest rate decision, what are the views of the three factions guiding the Federal Reserve, and which has the loudest voice and highest probability?
The results of the Federal Reserve's July meeting are about to be revealed, with GDP, PCE inflation, and unemployment data being released in quick succession. But what most moves the market is the escalating disagreement within the Federal Reserve over rate cuts. The three major camps are vying for power, making whether to cut rates in September a true 'suspense drama.'
The results of the Federal Reserve's July meeting are about to be revealed, with GDP, PCE inflation, and unemployment data being released in quick succession. But what most moves the market is the escalating disagreement within the Federal Reserve over rate cuts. The three major camps are vying for power, making whether to cut rates in September a true 'suspense drama.'
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When the market is unstable and risky, shouting about how amazing the project is. CFX ACH XRP talking about the future instead of the price is equivalent to being a rogue. #美国与欧盟达成关税协议 #巨鲸动向
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What is the probability of a preventive interest rate cut on the 31st, and what are the viewpoints from the three factions? What is the likelihood of Powell backing down this time? A video explains the thought process, with possible scenarios before the rate cut, helping you avoid detours. #利率决议 #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储何时降息？
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