When engaging in contract trading in the crypto space, systematic operations should be conducted from four levels: trading preparation, strategy formulation, risk control, and mindset management. Here are specific suggestions:
1. Strategy Formulation: Combine trends and leverage to reduce ineffective operations.
1. Trend Following Strategy
Bullish Trend: Go long when BTC retraces 10%-20% during an uptrend, for example, opening a position when the price stabilizes after falling from 50,000 USDT to 45,000 USDT.
Bearish Trend: Short ETH when it rebounds to key resistance levels (such as the 30 MA on the 4-hour chart) during a downtrend.
Technical Indicator Assistance:
A golden cross above the MACD zero line is a buy signal, while a death cross below the zero line is a sell signal.
When the Bollinger Bands widen, prices may run along the upper/lower band, allowing for trend-following positions.
2. Leverage Usage Principles
Novice Recommendation: Start with 1-5x leverage, with each position not exceeding 10% of total funds.
High Leverage Scenario: Only use more than 10x leverage when the risk-reward ratio is above 3:1, and it should be coupled with a very low position (e.g., 2% of total funds).
Leverage Formula: Liquidation Price = Opening Price × Leverage / (1 + Leverage × Maintenance Margin Rate). For example, with 50x leverage on a long BTC position and a maintenance margin rate of 0.5%, the liquidation price is 48,543 USDT.
3. Arbitrage and Hedging Strategies
Cross-Period Arbitrage: Hold positions in contracts with different expiration dates simultaneously to capture basis change profits. For example, when the weekly contract price is lower than the quarterly contract, buy the weekly and sell the quarterly contract.
Options Hedging: Buy put options while holding long contracts; if the price drops, the option's profit can offset the contract's loss.
2. Risk Control: Set stop-loss and take-profit levels to avoid emotional trading**
1. Stop-loss Strategy
Fixed Point Method: For example, DOGE's current price is 0.1 USDT; set a stop-loss at 0.095 USDT (5% loss).
Dynamic Tracking Method: When a long BTC position rises from 50,000 to 55,000 USDT, move the stop-loss price from 48,500 to 53,000 USDT to protect unrealized gains.
Technical Indicator Assistance: Set stop-loss based on support levels; for example, trigger a stop-loss when BTC breaks below the 30 MA on the 4-hour chart (49,500 USDT).
2. Position Management
Position Allocation Strategy: Divide funds into 3 parts, using only 1 part to open a position each time, while the remaining funds act as a risk buffer.
Isolated Position Testing: Positions in the same direction and currency pair are independent; after liquidation, only the corresponding position's margin is lost, avoiding total liquidation.
3. Avoid High-Frequency Trading
- Daily trading exceeding 10 times may result in monthly fees of up to 15%-30%. Data shows that 92% of users who trade more than 50 times a month incur losses.
4. Mindset Management: Stay calm for long-term survival**
1. Emotion Control
No revenge trading after losses; stick to preset strategies. For instance, if the stop-loss line is 5%, then immediately close the position when the price hits the stop-loss level, without delaying actions due to the 'holding' mentality.
Keep a trading log, analyze the decision basis for each trade (such as entry price, stop-loss price, target price, holding time), and summarize the win rate and profit-loss ratio weekly.
2. Long-term Perspective
Professional traders typically have a win rate of only 55%-60%, with the core of profitability being 'keeping monthly losses under 5%'.
Set the goal during the novice phase as 'monthly losses ≤ 5% for 3 consecutive months' rather than pursuing high returns.
3. Continuous Learning
Pay attention to market dynamics (such as policy changes, major project updates) and adjust strategies in a timely manner. For example, after the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, market sentiment turned optimistic, and it is advisable to increase long positions.
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