Recently, two post-00 colleagues in the office made 300U by trading contracts in one day.
In our vast crypto market, this profit is really nothing; it's just a small amount.
But how can a broke person with only 1000 bucks resist the temptation!
Think of it this way: if you take out 100 bucks to play, even if you lose, it's just 2 days' worth of meals.
Then think about yourself, completely unaware of which coins will rise or when they will fall; playing like this is akin to gambling.
The broke person is now fully aware that they cannot afford the risk.
Then this person soberly checked the data.
1. What you see is just the tip of the iceberg.
Behind the 300U profit, there may be multiple experiences of liquidation.
About 75% of retail investors in the contract market lose money within 6 months, and this data is disclosed in the annual reports of major exchanges.
2. Recognizing the harsh reality of the data.
Bitcoin's annual volatility in 2023 is about 200%, but 80% of the gains occurred in just 7 trading days; missing these 7 days would mean zero annual gains.
The liquidation rate for altcoin contracts is higher; data from a second-tier exchange shows that 92% of users with 50x leverage do not survive 72 hours.
If the strategy used by colleagues is 'copy trading' or 'news trading', the long-term win rate will not exceed that of a casino blackjack (about 49%).
News cannot be accurate forever: even if they were right this time, what about next time? And the time after that? In the long run, the win rate of trading based on news will not exceed 50%, and may even be lower.
The essence of the market is a zero-sum game: if someone earns 300U, there must be someone else losing 300U. You might think you'll be the winner, but statistically, the vast majority of retail investors are losers.
3. The state of being broke is not suitable for engaging in contracts.
1: No margin for error: losing 100 bucks is your living expenses for 2 days, which means you can’t even bear the slightest pullback.
2: Lack of basic knowledge: not understanding candlesticks, support and resistance, funding rates, purely relying on copy trading, is no different from betting in a casino.
3: Easily manipulated by emotions: wanting to increase positions when making profits, wanting to recover losses when losing; the final result must be being harvested by the market.
If you really want to participate,
Zero-cost plan:
Simulated trading training: Use the exchange's simulation feature (like Binance simulated trading) to practice for 3 months, recording the decision basis for each trade.
On-chain data analysis: Learn to check data platforms like Santiment, observe the movements of large wallet addresses rather than listening to rumors.
Time arbitrage: Use your existing skills (design/programming/writing, etc.) to take orders on Web3 freelance platforms; earning stable income is more reliable than gambling.
Extreme risk control plan:
Absolutely no more than 2% of disposable cash (approximately 20 yuan if calculated as 1000).
Only open leverage below 3x, set automatic take profit and stop loss (for example, close the position immediately at 15% profit/10% loss).
Never touch contracts, only do spot trading, and only choose the top two coins BTC/ETH.
If you are determined to play:
Use 3 months to complete the following preparatory actions:
① Backtest various strategies from the past three years on TradingView.
② Read (A Brief History of Digital Currency) (Crypto Assets) to establish basic knowledge.
③ Set up a virtual portfolio on CoinMarketCap to experience real fluctuations.
In this market, surviving longer is 100 times more important than making quick profits. The most important investment right now is in cognitive ability and capital accumulation, not a gambling mindset.
(Lack of money + desire to make quick money) is exactly the type of retail investor that market makers love the most!!!
Real opportunities always belong to those who are not in a hurry to make money.
So that broke person with only 1000 bucks decided
First stabilize the basic situation, then think about other things.
