BTC Four-Hour Chart Analysis

1. Trend Structure

The current price is near 112060, which has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (114486) and has tested the lower band (111600) multiple times. This indicates that the market is in a bearish consolidation phase.

Overall, after falling from the high of 124545, a descending channel has formed, and no effective stabilization signals have been observed so far.

2. Indicator Signals

BOLL: The candlestick is operating below the middle band, and the lower band has been touched multiple times, indicating that downward pressure remains significant.

MACD: The histogram has turned green again, and the fast and slow lines have crossed downward, suggesting that bearish momentum has once again strengthened.

Volume: Trading volume has not shown a significant increase, implying that the decline is more of a trend continuation rather than a panic sell-off.

📰 Impact from News

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been somewhat inconsistent, and the recent strength of the US dollar index has weakened Bitcoin's safe-haven demand.

The inflow of funds into spot ETFs has slowed, and market sentiment is cautiously leaning towards the short term.

Overall, the news environment lacks strong positive factors for BTC, with a heavy wait-and-see sentiment that further supports the weak technical trend.

Operational Ideas and Reference Points

In the short term, the pattern remains a weak downward consolidation. It is recommended to take short positions at resistance and take profits/reduce positions at support.

Reference Points

Short-selling focus range: Pay attention to the area near 113800 – 114500 for entry under pressure.

Stop-loss position: Above 115200.

First target position: 111600.

Second target position: 110000 – 109500 range.

Summary: The short-term trend for BTC remains bearish. It is suggested to primarily hold short positions near 114500, looking down to the 111600 → 110000 range. If there is an unexpected strong breakout above 115200, then a stop-loss should be triggered to exit and wait for new signals.