After the 'high-leverage long squeeze', DOGE's price has fallen to the lower edge of the value area for 2 weeks, with the 0.205–0.222 trading dense area becoming the battleground for bulls and bears; RSI 26 is extremely oversold + order book buy orders are 3.4 times, short-term may have a 'dead cat bounce', but the medium-term is still in a downward channel, need to guard against a second bottom.

Key range structure
1. Value anchor (POC): 0.2224, with upper selling pressure of 6.1 B DOGE, it is the dividing line for medium-term bulls and bears.
2. High trading volume area (HVN):
• 0.2206–0.2224: First resistance for short-term pullback, has suppressed rebounds 3 times.
• 0.2287–0.2296: Second resistance, if broken with volume, it opens up space to 0.235.
3. Low trading volume gap (LVN):
• 0.188–0.193: Lower vacuum zone, may quickly slide to 0.18 after breaking below 0.205.
4. 70% trading volume coverage zone: 0.2027–0.2430, current price is at the lower edge of 5.5%, slightly oversold.

Momentum verification
• Up/Down Volume near POC is 40.5/59.5, sellers still dominate.
• Recent 4h K-line drop volume shrinks, short-term signs of stopping the decline; if the subsequent 1h shows Up Volume >60%, it can be seen as a bullish counterattack signal.
• Open interest decreased by 7.17% in 24h, while long/short ratio rose by 23.8%, indicating passive liquidation of long positions and no significant increase in short positions, favorable for rebound.

Auxiliary indicators
• Bollinger Bands 1h: Lower band 0.2086, price closely adheres; Middle band 0.2155 is the first target of the day.
• MA200 1h: 0.2295, deviating -8%, still in a bearish arrangement for the medium term.
• Market: 0.205–0.206 accumulates 5.8 B buy orders, forming a 'liquidity moat'.

Order book anomaly
Far-end sell wall 0.25–0.26 totals 27 million USDT, if short-term rises to this level, it could easily spike and fall back.

Market cycle
In the final phase of 'oscillating downtrend' at the daily level, the weekly structure still indicates a bear market; if 0.205 is lost, it will confirm a new round of main decline.

Short-term strategy (based on range structure)
Aggressive: Light long position near current price 0.211, stop loss at 0.205 (lower HVN edge), target 0.2206 (first HVN), risk-reward ratio 1.6.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to LVN 0.206–0.208, re-enter when 15 min Up Volume >60%, stop loss 0.2027 (VAL), target 0.2224 (POC), risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Cautious: If it breaks 0.2224 and closes above it for 1h, long position if it pulls back and does not break 0.2206, stop loss 0.218, target 0.2287, risk-reward ratio 2.3.

Risk warning
• If 1h closes below 0.2027, the strategy fails, reverse to short.
• Macro risks (US bonds, US stocks) or negative tweets from Musk may trigger additional selling.

LP market making suggestions
Recommend placing two-way liquidity in the range of 0.205–0.222:
• Place buy orders at the lower edge of the range 0.205–0.208 to enjoy potential rebounds + fees;
• Place sell orders at the upper edge of the range 0.220–0.222 to hedge against short-term selling pressure;
• Fund allocation 50/50, stop loss 2% outside the overall range to prevent one-sided breakthroughs.

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