Brothers, let's chat about the ETH trend this afternoon. We need to keep a close eye on this pullback.
The current ETH price is in the range of 4263-4309, having dropped over 3.5% in the last 24 hours, with a daily low of 4225. The key support level of 4300 has been breached. Compared to last week's high of 4900, this is nearly a 13% retracement, which is quite aggressive. Worse yet, over 500 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with nearly 90% being long positions, and ETH taking a significant hit, leaving longs in a tough spot.
There are two main reasons for the decline: First, macroeconomic headwinds, as the US July PPI exceeded expectations, cooling down the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, and the strengthening dollar is pressuring risk assets; second, there is selling pressure on-chain, with 87,000 ETH waiting to be unstaked (approximately 3.76 billion), setting a historical high. Although unlocking takes 15 days, the concerns over selling have already fermented.
From a technical perspective, the support level of 4250-4200 (Fibonacci 50% + Daily MA30) is the bulls' defense line, while 4150 is the institutional cost zone; a break below could test 3950-3800. The resistance level is at 4350 (4-hour EMA120), and a breakout could alleviate some of the bearish pressure; 4450-4500 is a dense area for bears, and a rebound could easily face resistance.
The indicators show divergence: the 4-hour MACD has a death cross, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, leaning bearish; however, the 30-minute RSI is oversold (22.7), indicating a lack of bottom divergence, and a reversal would require a strong bullish candle.
Today's trading guidance is: if it pulls back to around 4220-4180, go long directly, targeting 4280-4355. However, I must warn of risks; the current market sentiment is unstable, and if the support level is lost, it may continue to drop. Be sure to strictly set stop-losses when trading, and do not hold blindly. $BTC
