Can Ethereum reach $10,000 this round?

We are comparing the relative valuation of ETH and BTC.

The ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable in the long term, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is historically in the lower-middle position over the past 5 years, so there is a possibility that ETH is currently 'undervalued'.

Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214. If we refer to the previous bull market's ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08 for estimation, still assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be between $7,200 and $9,600. Ethereum ETF and institutional holdings

With the surge in ETH prices, significant off-exchange funds are pouring into Ethereum ETFs. Many people overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying, which is not only a positive sentiment but also a huge buying force.

Ethereum spot ETFs have reached a new historical high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11th, Eastern Time, and the current net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $25.712 billion, with a holding of approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current ETH circulating supply, compared to BTC's ETF percentage of 6.48%, indicating there is still room for growth. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the ETH circulating supply, and BMNR has publicly aimed to ultimately hold 5% of the global Ethereum circulating supply. After deducting 36.17 million ETH locked in staking, the free circulating supply is only about 7.51 million ETH.

The upcoming price projections are based on a simple assumption: the proportion of the free circulating supply decreases, which will proportionally drive up the price per unit.

That is, new price = current price × (target free circulating supply / current free circulating supply)

If we bundle the ETFs and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this proportion increases to 10% in the future, and the stake-locking ratio changes little, the free circulating supply will shrink to about 7.252 million ETH, and the corresponding price mechanically rises to about $4,647; if it increases to 15%, it rises to about $5,070; if it increases to 20%, it approaches $6,000.

ETF and institutional incremental funds usually take some time to complete settlement, which means that the ETH price center will be raised long-term and steadily, rather than surging in the short term.