What if there is no interest rate cut in September? The 'Black Friday' alarm in the crypto world has been sounded
As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision becomes the 'heartbeat monitor' of the global financial market, the nerves in the crypto world are stretched to the limit. If the September interest rate cut expectation fails, a 'domino effect' triggered by tightening liquidity may sweep the market—Bitcoin could fall below the critical support level of $112,000, Ethereum may face a wave of institutional selling, and altcoins will likely fall into a 'bloodbath'.
Tightening liquidity: The 'food shortage crisis' of crypto assets
The US July PPI surged 3.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and inflation stickiness forced the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. The market's original bet on 'liquidity revival' instantly froze, the dollar index soared, and risk assets faced collective pressure. If Bitcoin breaks the $112,000 defense line, it could trigger programmed stop-loss orders, leading to a panic sell-off around $105,000. More dangerously, institutional ETF funds like Grayscale continue to flow out, while miner selling pressure and large whale cash-outs (such as 334 ETH for a profit of $140 million) will exacerbate market panic.
Institutions vs Retail Investors: A life-and-death game
Retail investors are panicking and cutting losses during the crash, while institutions are secretly buying the dip—BitMine has invested $470 million to buy 106,000 ETH, and the demand for safe-haven assets in Latin America has surged by 40%. This divergence may lead the market into a state of 'ice and fire': Bitcoin may fluctuate around $115,000, while altcoins will face a catastrophic liquidity drought. More critically, regulatory uncertainties such as the (GENIUS Act) may disrupt institutional entry if policies suddenly tighten.
Counterattack? Three signals hidden in crisis
Despite the lurking crisis, there remains a possibility of reversal: 1) Bitcoin whales are accumulating 18,000 coins in the $118,000-$120,000 range, with a cost defense line potentially becoming a rebound pivot; 2) Ethereum's daily Chande momentum indicator has reached a new high since 2021, and stabilizing above $4,500 could open the $6,000 channel; 3) If the Federal Reserve signals 'pause on rate cuts but retains flexibility', the market may welcome a corrective trend.
Conclusion: On September 18, a game-changing showdown
As the countdown points to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, every number could become a trigger. The life-and-death game in the crypto world has just begun... (For exclusive strategies, follow Mai Zi)
