1. Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 new high, but altcoins are 'playing dead'?
In August 2025, Bitcoin price surpasses $120,000, setting a new historical high. However, the market is caught in a strange divergence: mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana are in sideways motion, while 90% of smaller coins are still struggling at low levels. Retail investors can't help but ask, 'Is the altcoin season not coming?'
The truth may be harsher than imagined — the altcoin season has never disappeared, just taken on a new face.
2. 'Awakening signals' of the altcoin season: Three major indicators have turned red.
1. Bitcoin's 'bloodsucking' slows down, while capital flows beneath the surface.
- Bitcoin's dominance drops below 50%: According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's market cap share has fallen to 51% (60% in November 2024), and historical patterns show that once it drops below 50%, funds will accelerate towards altcoins.
- Stablecoin market cap surpasses $160 billion: USDT and USDC total reserves reach an all-time high, equivalent to 40% of Bitcoin's market cap, and this 'ammo' could flood into altcoin markets at any time.
2. Policy easing: The 'legalization' of the crypto world accelerates.
- The Trump administration promotes (cryptocurrency sovereignty bill): Clearly exempts Meme coins from securities regulation, and the SEC's relaxed stance on liquid staking tokens (e.g., LDO up 58% in a month) releases strong positive signals.
- Countdown to Fed rate cuts: With expectations of a rate cut in September, the market predicts that altcoins will see an average increase of over three times that of Bitcoin, with an additional $300 billion in liquidity by 2025.
3. Institutional entry: The 'invisible hand' of altcoins
- Grayscale and BlackRock increase holdings: Grayscale adds 40 altcoins to its watchlist, and BlackRock issues over $20 billion in national bond tokens through Ethereum, with annual returns of 5%-7%, attracting traditional capital to enter.
- Retail investors' 'fear of missing out' erupts: The scale of U.S. money market funds reaches $7.2 trillion, and after rate cuts, funds may flow massively into altcoins.
3. Will history repeat itself? The 'new script' of altcoin season
1. 2017 vs 2025: From 'national carnival' to 'elite game'.
- 2017: The ICO craze gave rise to countless hundredfold coins, but 90% of the projects collapsed to zero due to lack of application.
- 2025: The narrative focuses on AI + DePIN, RWA, and modular blockchain, with institutional dominance leading funds to favor projects with real income (such as Lido staking rewards consistently ranking first).
2. Three major explosive tracks have emerged
- Ethereum ecosystem: Pectra upgrades optimize interaction experience, and Layer 2 tokens like LDO and ARB may become new favorites for capital.
- Meme coins: Solana chain Meme coins (like BONK, WIF) are the main battlefield for retail investors due to low transaction fees, but beware of the liquidity trap of '100 projects a week.'
- AI track: Web3 AI tokens (like WAI) integrate real-time data and smart contracts, predicted to be the 'most likely altcoin to explode in 2025.'
4. Time window prediction: September may be the 'critical point'
- Q3 launch signal: Fed rate cuts (September), Ethereum ETF capital outflow, and political narratives (Trump reserve plan) may trigger a full-blown altcoin season.
- Risk warning:
- Market maker manipulation: The top 5 market makers control 80% of altcoin liquidity, making the risk of coordinated crashes extremely high.
- Regulatory fluctuations: If the Democrats win the midterm elections, crypto-friendly policies may be overturned.
5. Retail survival rules: No more 'going all in'!
1. Choose tracks: Focus on projects with low market capitalization (around $1 billion) and solid fundamentals (like modular blockchain Berachain).
2. Control positions: Altcoin allocation should not exceed 30% of total positions, and single coin holdings should be ≤5%.
3. Use tools:
- Arkham monitoring chips: If the top 10 addresses reduce their holdings by more than 15% within two weeks, exit immediately.
- Hedging strategy: Buy BITO put options or go long on the VIX index to hedge against black swan events.
Conclusion: The essence of altcoin season is the monetization of cognition.
The altcoin season of 2025 is destined to be a battle of 'ice and fire.' Bitcoin's 'safe-haven consensus' is disintegrating, and whether altcoins' 'risk appetite' can take over depends on whether you can grasp the three cores of real income, technological breakthroughs, and undervaluation.
Remember: Making money in a bull market is luck; not losing in a bear market is strength. When the square dance aunt starts asking you 'Do you want to All in that dog coin?', remember to raise your Bitcoin position to over 50% — after the revelry, it’s always Bitcoin that cleans up the mess!#加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币 #山寨季何时到来？
