C is lying near 0.21 as a 'low volatility trough', with a large withdrawal of positions leaving chips at the value center of 0.26—once it stands above the LVN gap, a short squeeze only needs 1 15m K-line with volume.
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Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchoring Zone (POC): 0.2614 (114 million trading volume) — 70% of trading in the past two weeks revolves around this level, and selling pressure above still exceeds buying (Down Vol 53%).
• High Volume Buffer (HVN): 0.2557, 0.2585, 0.2614, 0.2643 four consecutive overlaps, forming a 'thick wall' between 0.255–0.265, with price often receiving support on the first pullback.
• Low Volume Gap (LVN): 0.2128–0.2185, 0.2414–0.2443, 0.3014–0.3128, where below 0.2185 is a vacuum area, breaking below will directly probe 0.20; breaking above 0.2443 will directly point to POC.
• 70% Trading Volume Coverage Zone: 0.250–0.458; the current price of 0.2175 is at the bottom of the range, with RSI 33 resonating with the Bollinger Band lower limit of 0.2116, indicating short-term overselling.
Momentum Verification
– 0.2185 LVN recently had 61% of Up Volume in the last hour, showing mild buying dominance;
– 0.2614 POC recently had 57% of Down Volume in the last 4 hours, not yet reversed.
– Contract positions decreased by 5.78% in 24 hours, but the long-short ratio rose from 1.67 to 1.80, indicating initial signs of short covering.
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Market Cycle Judgment
The medium-term is still at the end of a bear market (MA200 deviation -11.8%), but in the short term, there are characteristics of a bottoming phase with 'low volume + concentrated positions', which can be seen as the 'spring' phase at the end of oscillation.
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Trading Strategy (Based on VPVR)
Aggressive Long Position: 0.2185–0.220 (Upper edge of LVN), Stop loss 0.211 (recent HVN 0.2128 outer -0.5×ATR), First target 0.2443 (previous LVN), Second target POC 0.2614, Risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3.
Conservative Long Position: Wait for a 15m breakout above 0.2443 with Up Volume > 60% before entering on a pullback, Stop loss 0.238, Target 0.2614–0.2643, Risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.0.
Shorting only considered: Break below 0.211 and Down Volume > 55%, pullback to 0.2128 for light shorting, Stop loss 0.218, Target 0.20, Risk-reward ratio 1.8.
Risk Warning: If the 8h closing price falls back below 0.211, or if the contract positions expand again and the long-short ratio drops below 1.6, the bullish structure will fail.
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LP Market Making Suggestions
It is recommended to place bilateral liquidity between 0.250–0.265 (HVN dense area), Reason:
1) This area accounts for 70% of the trading core, with low slippage;
2) Once the price returns here, there will be fierce competition between bulls and bears, and transaction fee returns will be high;
3) Range width ≈ 6%, suitable for medium volatility market making strategies, set a 5% rebalancing threshold.
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