🎯 Core Argument of the Week
This week, the market staged a song of ice and fire between the stable layout of 'old money' and the accelerated implementation of 'new regulations'. On one hand, seasoned funds represented by long-term holders are making significant purchases against the trend, injecting fundamental confidence into the market (fire); on the other hand, the continuous tightening of regulations and the exposure of vulnerabilities in public chain security models have brought an unshakeable chill to the market (ice).

📊 Supporting Arguments

  • Fire: Counter-Trend Layout of Seasoned Funds

    • Key Data 1 (Glassnode): Long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin have net increased their holdings by over 167,000 BTC in the past 30 days. This indicates that during the market pullback, 'smart money' is firmly buying the dips and accumulating structurally.

    • Key Data 2 (DefiLlama): This week, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi and the total market value of stablecoins have both shown a moderate rebound, indicating that risk appetite is returning and active funds are starting to flow back into the on-chain ecosystem.

  • Ice: Dual Pressure of Regulation and Security

    • Headline News 1 (Cointelegraph): The U.S. Treasury and SEC have made it clear that they will advance digital identity verification requirements in the DeFi space. This marks the formal inclusion of DeFi into the regulatory framework, signaling the end of the era of wild growth, and 'compliance' will become the core narrative of the sector.

    • Headline News 2 (Cointelegraph): Kraken has suspended Monero (XMR) deposits due to the risk of a 51% attack from a single mining pool. This incident once again sounds the alarm on the centralization of PoW privacy coins and may trigger a reassessment of security and regulation across the entire privacy sector.

💡 On-Chain Perspective: Next Week's Playbook
Based on this week's 'Ice and Fire' macro narrative, we have derived the following three key scenarios for next week:

  • Scenario 1 (Optimistic Scenario - Fire Spreading): If the BTC price can stabilize above [key support level] and LTH continues to increase their holdings, market confidence may be ignited. At that time, funds flowing back into DeFi may prioritize sectors related to the 'compliance' narrative, such as RWA (real-world assets) or blue-chip DeFi protocols that have actively cooperated with regulators.

  • Scenario 2 (Pessimistic Scenario - Bone-Chilling Ice): If the fallout from the Monero incident triggers panic regarding the security of other PoW small coins, or if U.S. regulators announce unexpectedly harsh regulations, it may lead to a 'risk-off rotation' of funds. At that time, funds may flow out of high-risk altcoins and re-concentrate in BTC, ETH, or directly exchange into stablecoins for safety.

  • Scenario 3 (Consolidation Scenario - Ice and Fire Intertwined):The market is caught in a sideways consolidation under the buying pressure of LTH and regulatory constraints. In this scenario, the most critical strategy is 'to observe'. Focus on whether the accumulation speed of LTH slows down, and whether the real users and transaction volumes of DeFi protocols can support the growth of their TVL.

    Faced with the greed of 'old money' and the fear of 'new regulations', which side do you think will ultimately prevail in next week's market? Will fire consume ice, or will ice extinguish the fire?
    #一周精选 #市场分析