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On-chain data is bullish
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#ETH 短期承压蓄力，中期突破在即 短期压力：交易所储备金增至 18.54M ETH（+0.1%），衍生品空头占优（资金费率转负），需警惕回调至 $3,800 支撑位。 中期动能：巨鲸逆势囤积（单地址存款 21.08亿）、质押量稳步增长（36.12METH，+0.114,500 积蓄力量。 长期趋势：月线站稳 4,200（突破2021年下降趋势线），牛市结构未改，目标5,000+。
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#ETH 短期流动性承压，中期巨鲸抄底信号显现 风险点：散户交易者持续亏损（净PnL为负）、交易所资金流入放缓 机遇点：顶级巨鲸逆势囤积ETH（单地址存款超$21亿）、高频做市商活跃度飙升 关键位：短期支撑 3,500，突破4,200 将打开上涨空间
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#ETH 短期承压震荡，中期突破动能蓄势 交易所储备金持续积累叠加衍生品空头占优，短期需警惕回调风险，但链上基本面与机构增持支撑中期看涨逻辑。关键支撑位 3,800（30日均线），压力位4,500（前高）。
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#ETH ETH基本面仍为加密生态最强，短期盘整后有望领涨新周期，建议采用回调分批建仓+右侧突破加仓策略。 短期谨慎震荡，中期看涨动能稳固
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#ETH 后市走势呈现 震荡偏弱 格局，需警惕短期回调风险，但中长期趋势尚未破坏。链上数据和压力阻力见图
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