Hello everyone! It’s the weekend again, and the market’s temperament hasn’t changed; it continues to play its oscillation game.
Let’s first talk about Bitcoin (BTC); how did this guy perform yesterday?
It’s pretty much what we chatted about yesterday morning; it indeed made a rebound and seems to want to surge upwards.
But? The key barrier (118000) just couldn’t be breached! This pressure wall looks quite solid; the bulls have tried to push it several times but failed.
Guess what happened? By the late night, the momentum leaked, and the price slid down pathetically... What does this indicate? It shows that yesterday’s rebound, although lively, was actually not solid; it was just a breather after a drop, and not a signal for a solid rise!
So how will Bitcoin behave today? I’m pondering:
It’s highly likely it will probe down further: since it hasn’t truly stabilized, it may still need to grind down a bit to wash out the unsteady chips. However, there’s no need to panic; I think the space for this drop won’t be particularly scary. Focus on the area around 116000, which is a pretty critical 'floor price' (support level). As long as it doesn’t crash down violently (such as with a large bearish candle), there’s a good chance for a rebound in this area!
Don’t chase after the shorts! Why? Because at this position, following the trend to short (betting on further drops) carries a bit too much risk, and potential profits might be small. Unless it suddenly accelerates and crashes down (which has a low probability), I believe the downward space is limited. If it drops down, especially near 116000, it might actually be a good opportunity to pick up cheap chips (buying some spot in batches)! Remember this: opportunities are born in despair; if it really drops, it might just create a 'golden pit.'
Let’s take another look at Auntie (ETH):
This girl was a bit more active than Bitcoin yesterday, but the important defense line (4360) held strong and wasn’t effectively broken! This indicates there’s still some bullish support here.
Auntie’s trend is basically in sync with Bitcoin; they’re like two good brothers, molded from the same die—when Bitcoin rebounds, she rebounds; when Bitcoin drops, she follows. Thus, the analysis thought process is very similar.
But there’s an important time point to note: tomorrow morning, the 'report card' (weekly line) for Auntie will be submitted! So from this afternoon until tomorrow morning, we need to pay special attention to another key 'floor price'—around 4250! As long as this position can hold up and not be smashed through, there shouldn't be a big problem.
Like Bitcoin, I estimate that Auntie will probably just step down one more time (at most one dip), and then it will be time for it to perform a rebound!
To summarize, how should we retail investors respond?
Bitcoin (BTC):
Focus on 118000 (ceiling pressure) and 116000 (floor support).
If it drops to around 116000, don’t panic! Consider buying some spot (bottom fishing) in batches, hoping for a rebound.
Whatever you do, don’t chase shorts just because it’s dropping! It’s easy to get caught halfway down.
Auntie (ETH):
Focus on 4360 (the defense line held yesterday) and 4250 (the lifeline for this week; if it holds, there’s hope for next week).
The thought process is in sync with Bitcoin: if it drops again (especially near 4250), don’t cut losses; instead, think about whether it’s an opportunity.
Core mantra to keep in mind:
In a fluctuating market, don’t chase rises and kill dips! (Don’t chase madly when it rises, don’t cut losses when it falls.)
Near the key support level (floor price), you can be a bit bolder! (Buy! Buy in batches!)
Bitcoin and Auntie are closely linked; watch Bitcoin’s movements to trade Auntie! (Keep a close eye on BTC, and ETH will follow.)
Be patient! When it digs a pit, that’s our time to bend down and pick up money! 💰 (Let the bullets fly for a while!)
Remember, the market is now in trampoline mode—bouncing up and down. This kind of market is most averse to random operations. Control your hands, set orders (preset buy orders near support levels), and leave the rest to time! Wait steadily for it to finish oscillating, and the rebound will naturally come. Have a pleasant weekend, and don’t tire yourself out watching the market!
