BTC Outlook 116000
One, Market Dynamics and Price Performance**
1. **Intraday Price Volatility**
- On August 17, Bitcoin rose slightly by 0.05% to **$117,418.76**, briefly breaking through **$118,000** during the day (currently reported at $118,009.80).
- Previously, on August 15, BTC plunged from a historical high of **$124,500** to **$117,000** (a single-day drop of 4.24%), mainly due to U.S. PPI inflation data exceeding expectations (YoY +3.3%), raising market concerns over the Fed delaying interest rate cuts.
2. **Derivatives Market Liquidation**
- In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached **$98.64 million**, with long positions liquidating $59.51 million (60% share) and short positions liquidating $39.12 million, reflecting that bullish leverage positions still face pressure.
- Bitcoin futures annualized premium stabilizes at **9%** (neutral range), with options Delta skew at only 3% (no panic hedging observed), indicating that professional funds remain calm about medium-term trends.
📈 Two, Key Technical Signals
1. **Support and Resistance Game**
- **Support Level**: $116,500 (coinciding with the 200EMA and July trend line) serves as the lifeline for the day; losing it may trigger algorithmic selling down to $113,500.
- **Resistance Level**: $119,300 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement) and $122,500 (previous high selling pressure zone) constitute upward obstacles.
- The 4-hour Bollinger Band has narrowed to **$117,700**, indicating that volatility is about to explode.
2. **On-chain Data and Whale Movements**
- Addresses holding over 1000 BTC have accumulated **18,000 Bitcoins** during the crash (cost range $118,000-$120,000), indicating bullish expectations through contrarian positioning.
- Exchange net outflow of **-$47.1M**, reflecting some profit-taking, but long-term holders have not shown large-scale selling.
Three, Macroeconomic Policy and Event-Driven
1. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
- The market still bets on a **90.5%** probability of a rate cut in September, but after the PPI data exceeded expectations, the probability of rates falling below 3.75% by 2026 dropped from 67% to 61%.
- The **Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23)** becomes the focal point; if dovish signals are released, it may help BTC break through the range.
2. Regulatory Policy Reversal
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant explicitly denied the expansion of the government Bitcoin reserve plan, shattering expectations for 'sovereign funds entry', leading to speculation funds withdrawing.
- Although the Trump administration has relaxed investment restrictions on crypto assets (such as 401(k) retirement account allocations), key legislations like the (GENIUS Act) remain undecided, and regulatory ambiguity continues to suppress institutional entry willingness.
Four, Institutions and Capital Flows
- **Ethereum Fund Diversion**: Corporate Ethereum holdings close to **$9 billion**, with spot ETF inflows driving ETH's year-to-date increase exceeding BTC, as some funds shift from Bitcoin to the ETH ecosystem.
- **Hedging Demand in Emerging Markets**: The Latin American region (Brazil, Mexico) sees Bitcoin trading volume surge **40%** due to concerns over currency depreciation stemming from Trump’s tariff policies, highlighting its 'escape currency' attribute.
Five, Outlook for the Next 24 Hours
- **Bullish Scenario** (Probability 40%): Stabilizing above $118,500 with increased volume, targeting $120,800→$122,500.
- **Neutral Consolidation** (Probability 50%): Range consolidation between $116,500-$119,300, awaiting signals from the Jackson Hole annual meeting.
- **Bearish Risk** (Probability 10%): Losing $116,500 may quickly drop to $113,500.
> 💡 **Strategy Suggestion**: Short-term traders should focus on whether the price can recover $118,000 during the European session (after 15:00 Beijing time), in conjunction with Coinglass liquidation heatmap to avoid leveraged congestion areas.