Bitcoin's market is really slow, bearish

1. **Focus of Long/Short Game**

- **Resistance**: $119,300 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement) and $120,800 (0.618) form a strong resistance zone; breakthrough requires increased trading volume.

- **Support**: $116,500 (200EMA + July trendline) is the lifeline of the day; falling below may trigger algorithmic selling to $113,500.

2. **Conflicting Signals from Technical Indicators**

- **Bullish Factors**:

- 4-hour chart Bollinger Bands are narrowing (middle rail $117,700), indicating that volatility is about to explode.

- Institutions continue to accumulate: BlackRock increased its BTC holdings by $500 million in a single day, and ETF net inflows hedge retail selling pressure.

- **Bearish Risks**:

- The DMI indicator shows that the short side is dominant (-DI 26.8 > +DI 24.6).

- Net outflow of $47 million from exchanges, suggesting short-term profit-taking pressure.

3. **Catalysis by Macro Events**

- Preview of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Annual Meeting (August 21-23): If dovish signals are released, it may help BTC break through the range.

- Geopolitical Risks: The Russian-American "Putin-Biden meeting" did not reach a substantive agreement, and risk aversion potentially supports Bitcoin.