I. Trend Structure

  • Rise + Consolidation: The rising wave that started from 3345.06 is clear, and it is currently entering a triangular consolidation pattern (highs gradually lower, lows steadily rising), is it a typical 'continuation during an uptrend' or 'top reversal'? The breakout direction needs to be observed.

  • Key Support / Resistance:

    • Purple horizontal line (around 4418): A strong support area tested multiple times recently (confirmed after breaking through before), if maintained, the consolidation will continue;

    • Above 4621, 4869: Previous highs, breaking through will open up new high space.

II. Fibonacci Retracement (Potential Bullish and Bearish Reference)

  • 0.382 (4228), 0.5 (4059), 0.618 (3891): If the purple support is broken, these are the step defense levels, corresponding to different degrees of 'trend destruction'.

III. Volume + Patterns

  • Volume contraction: The current trading volume has significantly shrunk compared to the rising wave, in line with the volume characteristics of a 'triangle consolidation' (stalemate between bulls and bears);

  • K-line signal: There is no clear reversal signal at the 4-hour level (such as a large bearish candle breaking support or consecutive declines), short-term bias is towards volatility waiting for a breakout.

IV. Operational Logic (Plain Language Version)

  • Bulls: Maintain support at 4418 → Buy on dips, betting on breaking through 4621, aiming for 4869;

  • Bears: Effectively breaking below 4418 → Light shorting, looking down at 4228-4059;

  • Wait and see: Ambiguous bullish and bearish signals before the breakout, those with heavy positions can reduce their positions and wait for direction, light position players bet on the breakout (make sure to set stop-loss!).


(Technical analysis is a probability game, don’t hold on stubbornly! Combining news and position management is more stable, ETH has recently been correlated with the market, pay attention to BTC's movements in conjunction ~)#ETH走势分析