1. Trend framework: Nesting logic of the main channel and small structure

The SOL 4-hour chart presents a nested structure of 'large rising channel + small consolidation triangle':


  • Main channel (red boundary): The rising trend that started from the March low has not been broken, with upper track pressure near 240, and lower track support at 157.41, overall still in a bull cycle;

  • Small triangle (yellow boundary): Short-term consolidation pattern since August, with high points gradually lowering and low points rising, a typical 'converging waiting for breakout' structure, where the bull-bear game is heating up.

2. Key points: Dual verification of Fibonacci and chips

(1) Short-term bull-bear dividing line

  • 0.382 retracement level (189.07): The current price (188.44) is almost at this level. If held, the small triangle consolidation will continue, with a high probability of attacking 200 - 210.64 (previous high);

  • 0.5 and 0.618 support (182.40/175.74): If breaking below 189.07, these two Fibonacci levels are ladder defense points, corresponding to different levels of 'failed consolidation turning into pullback'.

(2) Mid to long-term trend anchor points

  • Lower track of the main channel (157.41): The ultimate defense line of the rising trend. Breaking below this level signals the end of the 'mid-term bull market', and deep pullbacks should be watched for;

  • Previous high resistance (210.64): Breaking through the upper edge of the small triangle + stabilizing above 210 will open up new high space (testing the upper track of the main channel at 240).

3. Volume + pattern: Consolidation with reduced volume, breakout imminent

  • Volume characteristics: The trading volume has significantly shrunk during the consolidation period (compared to the main upward wave in July), conforming to the volume rules of 'converging patterns' — both bulls and bears are temporarily stalemated, waiting for breakout signals;

  • K-line signal: No continuous large bearish candles / breaking patterns in 4 hours, short-term bias is 'oscillating accumulation', the breakout direction is likely to determine the subsequent 1 - 2 weeks trend.

4. Operation strategy: Bet on a breakout or wait for confirmation? Two types of gameplay

(1) Aggressive gambling faction (light position trial and error)

  • Going long: If the price breaks through 189.07 with volume + stabilizes above 200, chase long with a target of 210.64 (previous high), stop loss set at 185 (breaking below the lower edge of the small triangle);

  • Going short: If breaking below 182.40 + volume closes bearish, lightly short with a target of 175.74, stop loss set at 185 (false breakout rebound).

(2) Steady wait-and-see faction (waiting for clear signals)

  • Waiting for a breakout of the small triangle boundary (breaking above 200 or breaking below 182), confirming the direction before following up:

    • Breaking above → Pull back near 200 to go long, stop loss at 195;

    • Breaking below → Rebound near 182 to go short, stop loss at 187.


Core reminder: SOL is linked to the market and driven by the Solayer narrative (performance revolution logic). When breaking through, it's more stable to combine with BTC trends + news. Don't heavily invest during the consolidation period, keep some bullets for the trend after the breakout!
(Let's discuss in the comments: Are you betting on SOL breaking upward or pulling back downward?)
#SOL Trend analysis#币圈技术流 #加密货币趋势