Bitcoin is facing low volatility, but the calm before the storm could lead to significant price fluctuations if market events occur.
Bitcoin DVOL Index at historical lows, indicating severe complacency; any unexpected event could trigger significant price volatility.
Bitcoin's drop to $117,305; staying above $117,000 could push towards $120,000, but dropping below $115,000 exposes it to the risk of falling to $112,526.
The price of $BTC has recently declined from its all-time high (ATH), indicating a potential shift in market conditions. This decline, while seemingly typical, may indicate underlying concerns regarding future volatility.
Historical signals suggest that a volatility explosion may be on the horizon, prompting major holders to shift to a neutral stance.
Bitcoin is facing the calm before the storm.
Bitcoin DVOL Index, which tracks asset volatility, is at historically low levels. Only 2.6% of days have seen lower values, indicating severe market complacency. This suggests that investors are not hedging against potential downturns, which could lead to significant price movements if unexpected events cause volatility.
DVOL measures expected price changes over the coming month, and the current low levels indicate a comfortable outlook from traders. However, this calm may be temporary, as volatility shocks often follow periods of complacency. If an unexpected market event occurs, Bitcoin could experience rapid price fluctuations, potentially surprising investors.
Bitcoin DVOL Index.
The overall macroeconomic momentum for Bitcoin shows a noticeable shift in investor behavior. The change in net HODLer position has slowed, indicating reduced activity from long-term holders (LTHs). Although LTHs began accumulating at the start of the month, this buying trend has halted, likely due to prevailing market uncertainty.
Despite the absence of new buying activity, the lack of selling indicates a degree of optimism among these holders. They seem to be waiting for a clearer market direction before making their next move. This suggests that LTHs are cautious but anticipate that any increase in volatility may eventually lead to a price increase, keeping their positions steady for now.
Net HODLer position change for Bitcoin.
BTC price can maintain its support.
The price of $BTC showed an upward trend throughout the month, but this momentum faltered in the last 24 hours, with BTC dropping to $117,305. This decline occurred as the price fell below the defined upward trend line, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
If investors maintain their positions during the expected increase in volatility, Bitcoin could stabilize above $117,000. This would open the door for a potential push towards $120,000, turning it into support and allowing for further upward movement.
Bitcoin Price Analysis.
However, if investor sentiment turns pessimistic and selling increases in response to volatility, Bitcoin may face a significant drop. In this case, the price could fall through the support level of $115,000, reaching a minimum of $112,526. This would erase the gains seen in August, negating the bullish outlook.
