The painful experience of five liquidations made me deeply understand that the cryptocurrency market is not a casino, but a prolonged battle. Here, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. Those seemingly enticing doubling myths often cannot withstand the baptism of a bear market. To establish a foothold in the crypto world, one must cultivate a solid survival mindset.
1. Capital Protection Shield: 1% Risk Rule Establishes Solid Defense
In 2022, I entered the contract market with 300,000 in capital, and at that time, riding on the momentum of being a newcomer, I dared to set a 5% stop-loss per trade, resulting in only 20,000 left in my account after three liquidations. Now, even when encountering seemingly once-in-a-lifetime opportunities, my single trade risk never exceeds 1% of my capital, a hard rule earned through blood and tears.
The specific calculation for the 1% risk rule is not complicated: Maximum single loss amount = Total Capital × 1%. For example, if you have 100,000 in capital, then the maximum single loss you can bear is 1,000. Based on this, we can derive the appropriate position.
Assuming you're trading BTC contracts, with a stop-loss set at 3% and using 10x leverage, the position amount = 1000 ÷ (3% × 10) ≈ 3333 yuan. This means that with 100,000 in capital, each time you can only open a position of 3,333 yuan; not a penny more.
Last year, a student applied this principle, operating with 50,000 in capital for a year, with maximum drawdown not exceeding 8%. Although he didn’t get rich, he steadily earned 20,000. Meanwhile, those who recklessly went all-in with 20% positions have long been eliminated by the market.
Position allocation strategies are equally crucial. Total capital can be divided into 5 parts, with 3 parts for trend positions (medium to long-term) and 2 parts for swing trades (short-term). If a trend position loses 1 part, stop trading; if a swing trade loses 2 times in a row, it also needs to pause. In the 2023 bear market, I preserved 70% of my capital using this strategy, while those who went all-in are still yelling 'buy the dip'.
2. Stop-Loss Double Insurance: Technical and Capital Dual Protection
Stop using 'it doesn't feel right' as a reason to stop-loss; you must establish a dual stop-loss mechanism. Now, I set two stop-loss points for each trade; without one, I wouldn’t dare to place an order.
Technical stop-loss lets the market tell you when to run. For trend positions, use the 4-hour MA20 for stop-loss; if it drops below, cut it. For example, for BTC long positions, if the 4-hour closing price falls below MA20, clear the position regardless of profit or loss. For swing trades, use the ATR indicator for stop-loss, where the stop-loss range = 2 × ATR. For instance, if the current ATR is 500 yuan, set the stop-loss at 1000 yuan to filter normal fluctuations.
In March 2024, I opened a long position in ETH at 2,000, with the 4-hour MA20 at 1,950, and calculated a stop-loss at 1,900. In the end, the price dropped to 1,940, triggering the technical stop-loss, resulting in only a 3% loss, while those who relied on their feelings lost 20% and didn’t cut their positions.
Capital stop-loss uses numbers to firmly establish the loss limit. No matter how good the technicals look, if the loss reaches 1% of total capital, stop-loss immediately. Last year, I had a SOL long position where the technicals didn’t break, but the loss unknowingly reached 1.2%, so I cut it off, and the next day it indeed plunged by 15%. This is the foresight of capital stop-loss.
Executing stop-loss has a tough trick: use the exchange's 'conditional orders' to set stop-loss in advance, setting it at the same time you place the order to avoid the temptation to cancel. My conditional orders on my phone always outnumber my open positions; this helps the system manage my hands.
3. Position Adjuster: Dynamic Balance in Bull and Bear Transitions
At the peak of the 2021 bull market, I was all in on altcoins, and when the bear market hit, I lost 80%. Now, regardless of how good the market is, I always keep 30% cash in position, which is key to surviving bull and bear markets.
The bull market position has a formula: Position = (Current Price ÷ Historical High) × 100%. For example, if BTC's current price is 50,000 and the historical high is 69,000, then Position = 5 ÷ 6.9 × 100% ≈ 72%, and I dare to use at most 72% of my funds to avoid chasing at the peak.
When BTC rises to 58,000 in May 2024, I will reduce my position to 65% according to the formula, and later it will indeed retrace to 49,000, with the cash part just right for increasing positions.
The formula for bear market positions is: Position = (Historical Low ÷ Current Price) × 30%. For example, if BTC's current price is 30,000 and the historical low is 15,000, then Position = (1.5 ÷ 3) × 30% = 15%. Only use 15% of funds to position, and wait for lower points.
During the worst of the 2022 bear market, I maintained a 10% position according to the formula, which allowed me to not miss the rebound while avoiding selling at the bottom.
Position adjustments also have signals: When the weekly MACD crosses golden, increase the position by 10% for every 10% increase; when it crosses death, decrease the position by 10% for every 10% decrease. This mechanical adjustment can avoid emotional interference. Last year, using this trick, my position automatically dropped to 50% at the peak of the bull market and increased to 30% at the bottom of the bear market.
4. Market Filter: Sifting Out 90% of Ineffective Fluctuations
There is volatility in the crypto market every day, but 90% of the market movements are not worth participating in. I now filter out junk markets using the 'three-cycle resonance' method, with actual trading opportunities not exceeding 20 times a year.
Trend filtering should only follow the weekly directional trend. When the weekly MA5 is above MA20, only go long; conversely, only go short, and stay out during sideways movements. In 2023, I stayed out for 8 months during a weekly sideways trend, witnessing others struggling in the volatility without losing a dime.
Strength filtering requires trading volume to increase by 1.5 times. No matter how good the K-line looks, if there’s no significant volume, it’s fake. Last November, when SOL broke the previous high, the trading volume was 2.3 times the average of the previous 3 days, which is when I dared to enter; during the December breakout, the volume only increased by 0.8 times, so I decisively gave up, and it turned out to be a trap for bulls.
Timing filtering should only be done during 'critical time windows'. In a bull market, only enter at the beginning and middle of each month (when funds are ample); in a bear market, only enter at the end of each quarter (when institutional repositioning might trigger a rebound). Additionally, avoid the 3 days before and after the exchange's delivery date, as this period is prone to 'spike' market movements.
At the end of the quarter in March 2024, my altcoins positioned according to the time window averaged a 40% increase, while friends who entered at regular times mostly languished in the volatility.
5. Emotion Stabilizer: Using Mechanical Execution to Counter Human Weaknesses
The core of survival in the crypto world is transforming trading into a 'mass production operation'. I now use an execution sheet to standardize all decision-making processes; no matter how emotional, I must operate according to the sheet.
Last year, I made a 60% profit on an ETH long position. Greed made me hesitate to reduce my position, but recalling the punishment mechanism, I reluctantly closed half of it. Later, it indeed retraced by 30%, preserving most of my profits. This chart is not a constraint; it helps you combat human weaknesses.
6. Bear Market Survival Skills: Counterintuitive Operations to Get Through Difficulties
Those who survived the bear market understand these 3 counterintuitive operations.
Convert altcoins to BTC. In a bear market, BTC declines the least and rebounds the fastest. In 2022, I converted 80% of my altcoins to BTC, resulting in only a 20% loss, while friends fully in altcoins averaged a 70% loss.
Use options as 'low-cost insurance'. In a bear market, for every 20% drop, spend 1% of capital to buy call options. In 2023, when BTC dropped to 16,000, I spent 5,000 on options, which earned me 30,000 when it rebounded to 24,000, offsetting most of my losses.
Reduce trading frequency to once a month. Frequent operations in a bear market are equivalent to handing out money. In 2022, I only made one move a month, and my fees were 80% lower than usual, equivalent to earning an additional 8% of my capital.
7. Rolling Position Accelerator: The Core Logic of Violent Profit
Last year, I used 28,000 in capital and made it to 3.7 million through three rolling positions, not by luck, but through aggressive positioning and precise targeting. However, it must be noted that 90% of people simply can't handle it; they either hesitate or become overly greedy.
The core elements of making big money are not technology or news, but opportunity recognition (no more than 3 times a year) and aggressive position-taking (the willingness to win or lose). Most people fail because they usually play with a 5% position in spot trading, earning a little money; when real opportunities arise, they hesitate, watching others reap the rewards. The core of rolling positions is to win just 3 times in a lifetime.
There are three fatal opportunities in the crypto world (missing them means waiting a year): sideways movement after a 70% drop for 3 months (capital enters), breaking through key weekly resistance (trend initiation signal), and reversals after extreme market panic (you catch blood when everyone else sells). Seizing one can multiply your capital by 10 times.
Three types of people in rolling positions are destined to fail: those who are overly anxious, who sell as soon as they see a 20% rise and cut losses at a 5% drop, will never taste big gains; those who use leverage mindlessly, going in with 10x leverage and then cursing the market when liquidated; and those who overtrade, wanting to roll every week, ultimately paying all their fees to the exchange.
The most ruthless rolling strategy to note: when building positions, don’t go all-in right away, only choose BTC, ETH, SOL (large market cap, strong liquidity), the initial position should not exceed 20%, leaving 80% bullets for key points; increase positions when the price breaks above the previous high and the trading volume doubles, directly increase by 30%; exit signal is if the closing price falls below the 7-day moving average, close half, and if it falls below the 14-day line, exit completely.
The biggest enemy of rolling positions is greed. Earning 1 million and wanting 2 million, earning 2 million and wanting 5 million, eventually returning all the profits. The truly ruthless person does not hesitate to take profits when the time comes.
8. Contract Avoidance Techniques: Recognizing Traps to Profit
Those who trade contracts often encounter situations where the market moves against them as soon as they open a position, and it skyrockets after they close it. They clearly see the correct direction but suffer significant losses. Today, I will unveil the underlying logic, hidden rules, and funding rate traps of contracts, so you pay less tuition.
The essence of contracts is not buying or selling Bitcoin, but a 'betting agreement'. The exchange acts as the dealer; the money you earn comes entirely from the losses of other gamblers. Going long is betting on an increase; going short is betting on a decrease. However, many people correctly predict the direction but still get liquidated, which involves some dark secrets of the exchange.
The funding rate has traps. Do you think the funding rate is just a fee collected every 8 hours? Too naive! When the rate is extremely high, the exchange is forcing you to choose sides. When the rate > 0, bulls are giving money to bears; when the rate ≈ 0, bears are giving money to bulls. A practical tip is if the rate is continuously > 0.1% three times, don’t go long! It’s highly likely that the exchange wants to harvest the bulls.
The forced liquidation price also has tricks; the forced liquidation price ≠ theoretical liquidation price. Do you think a 10x leverage will liquidate at a 10% drop? Wrong! The actual liquidation price will be closer than the theoretical value. Because the exchange will charge extremely high liquidation fees, your margin will be wiped out.
Leverage also has hidden costs. It amplifies not only profits but also fees and funding costs. Many people think that using 100x leverage means earning 100 times? Too naive! The fees apply to both opening and closing positions, calculated based on the volume after leverage; funding costs are similarly calculated based on the leveraged position, and high-frequency trading can drain your capital. The core strategy is that high leverage is suitable only for short-term sniping; holding positions for over 4 hours will lead to fee harvesting.
Rolling positions combined with contracts are the nuclear weapons of full capital mode, using profits to continue opening positions. When the market cooperates, you can earn hundreds of times! But once it reverses, the full capital mode goes straight to zero. My suggestion is to only use 50% of the profits to increase positions, always leaving an exit.
90% of liquidation orders are concentrated at a few key price levels. Do you think it's just bad luck? In fact, most people do not lose to the market but to their own weak execution!
Conclusion: The ultimate password for survival — Acknowledge that you are an ordinary person.
The most deadly illusion in the crypto world is thinking that 'I am smarter than others'. After being liquidated 5 times, I finally accepted: I cannot catch every wave or predict every turning point, and I can only rely on simple methods — strict capital management, mechanical execution discipline, and staying out 90% of the time.
Now my account curve does not show the myth of earning 10 times every year, but it steadily rises every year. Most of those who once laughed at me for being 'conservative' have disappeared from the market. Remember: the survival rule in the crypto world is not 'attack', but 'defense' — as long as you can survive until the next bull market, even if you earn only 20% a year, compounding can make you a winner.
Finally, I share my 'Survival Dashboard': Every day at market open, check these three numbers — Has total capital drawdown exceeded 5%? Have I traded more than 3 times this week? Have I violated my execution sheet? Only days meeting all these criteria count as qualified trading days.
How many have lost hope in the volatility? Countless — but the core is just one: dare to follow, dare to act, and do not hesitate.
The layout for the next wave has already been drawn, with points, rhythms, and positions clearly marked. When mixing with @币来财888 people, don’t do it half-heartedly; just recognize one principle: precise sniping, no futile efforts.
But let me be clear: only those with strong execution capabilities are allowed.
It’s about being the type who doesn’t complain when prices drop, and doesn’t get greedy when they rise, who can earnestly execute.
It's about knowing that opportunities do not wait for people and wanting to hop on the train right away, rather than waiting to slap your thigh after the price rises.
The market does not wait for anyone, and spots are limited.
If you want to join in on this wave of gains, don’t hesitate, come now —
After all, those who can survive and still earn in the market are always the ones who dare to reach out first.
Are you ready?