Weekly Level: From the 2022 low of 15443 to the high of 124545 in August 2025, the increase is 706%. From the low of 75457 in April 2025 to the high of 124545 in August, the increase is 67%; compared to ETH, ETH rose from the April low of 1384 to 4784, a main upward wave increase of 246%, which is far greater than BTC's increase. From the perspective of wave theory, BTC has started its fifth wave at the weekly level since September 2024, but it is replacing the main upward wave with a terminal contracting triangle. I am personally pessimistic about BTC's performance in the past six months because once this pattern is confirmed, it usually signals a short-term peak. In the future, 124545 may be the peak of this upward trend for BTC, or it may rise to the upper edge of the contracting triangle around 131000-133000 or exceed the upper edge to reach a peak. Everything depends on the subsequent market development, with the main reference being the trading volume and fundamentals in the next month or even two months. If the trading volume and fundamentals align, it could push towards a peak around 13000.
Daily Level: A main upward wave from April to May 2025, rebounding from 74578 to a high of 111959, then starting a flag pattern consolidation lasting 45 days. In July, it broke through the 120000 platform and rose to 123300, which was far less than expected; from July 15 to August 11, it continued to consolidate in a flag pattern. Although it was a bullish flag pattern, on August 12, taking advantage of ETH's rise, it briefly broke the previous high before quickly falling back. In summary, the daily level movement has been quite convoluted.
Future Outlook and Operational Strategy: If BTC rises to around 124000-125000, consider light shorting; for stable operations, one must wait for the terminal contracting triangle to break down and complete the 5-wave adjustment, which is expected to be around 104000-108000. Once it breaks below the lower edge of the contracting triangle, the future potential is promising, with a temporary target around 75000.
