Bro, as an old player in the crypto world, I've been playing with ETH since 2017, when it was less than $100. Now watching it double and double again, I have mixed feelings. You asked about the probability of ETH reaching $10,000; I will combine the current market environment in August 2025, policy dynamics, and historical trends to break it down for you. Note, this is not investment advice, just personal analysis; the crypto world is risky, so DYOR (Do Your Own Research).

First, let’s talk about the current environment: ETH is currently fluctuating around $4200-$4300 (based on the latest data from Yahoo Finance and YCharts, closing at approximately $4228 on August 12). From the low point at the beginning of the year, it has risen quite a bit, but it is still more than twice away from $10,000. The overall market is in the later stages of a bull market; after BTC broke $100,000, ETH, as the second, also benefited, but the volatility is still high. The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is high, stablecoin liquidity is strong, and Layer 2 solutions (like Optimism, Arbitrum) have reduced transaction fees. Institutions are hoarding ETH, and staking rates have reached historical highs (ETH supply is deflationary). Last week, ETH investment products saw inflows of $268 million, setting a record for a single week, indicating strong institutional interest. Real World Assets (RWA) such as stocks being tokenized are also driving demand.

In terms of policy, 2025 is a big year for crypto. In the US, after Trump took office, he signed the GENIUS Act to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset reserves, which is a positive for the whole crypto world, especially for ETH as the cornerstone of DeFi and stablecoins. The SEC has launched 'Project Crypto' aimed at clarifying regulations and reducing uncertainty. After ETH ETF approval, inflows could reach billions, similar to the effect of BTC ETF. Globally, the EU’s MiCA regulations are stabilizing, and although China's ban is still in place, other regions in Asia (like Singapore) are embracing Web3. Overall, policy is shifting from hostile to a neutral preference, attracting more funds into the market.

Positive factors (driving it to $10,000):

• Institutional and ETF inflows: Companies and funds are buying aggressively, expecting ETH ETF inflows to exceed $10 billion by the end of 2025.

• Technical upgrades: After the Dencun upgrade, gas fees are low, and the network is more efficient. If more L2 and RWA integrations occur in the future, ETH’s value as a 'settlement layer' could double.

• Macroeconomic environment: If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates and liquidity remains loose, risk assets like crypto will benefit. Stablecoin market cap exceeds a trillion, most of which is on the ETH chain.

• Community consensus: Many people on X are calling for $10k ETH, including OGs like Arthur Hayes, who sees the path through liquidity cycles and Treasury companies hoarding assets. Polymarket gives an 8% probability of reaching $10k by the end of the year, but 52% for $5k.

Negative factors (risks that lower the probability):

• Regulatory uncertainty: If the SEC suddenly changes its stance or a global economic recession occurs, ETH could easily be cut in half. The details of potential new regulations in 2025 are unclear.

• Market volatility: The historical high for ETH was only $4800, and now at $4200, it is near the high. If BTC pulls back, ETH will likely fall too. Inflation pressures or geopolitical events could also crash the market.

• Competition: L1s like Solana are grabbing market share; although ETH has a first-mover advantage, if DeFi migrates, demand may decrease.

• Supply pressure: Although deflationary, if staking unlocks significantly, there could be selling pressure.

Probability analysis: The probability of reaching $10,000 in the short term (before the end of 2025) is about 20-30%. Why? The current momentum is good; after breaking $4k, analysts are looking at $6k-$7k, but to reach $10k, a perfect bull market continuation without major pullbacks is needed. In the medium to long term (by 2030), the probability is as high as 70-80%, as the forecast average is between $5000 and $26000, or even higher. If policies remain friendly and institutions increase their positions, ETH, as 'digital oil', will rise.

In conclusion, I personally hold ETH, heavily invested in staking, and believe it will reach $10,000, but the timing is uncertain. I recommend buying in batches, setting stop-losses, and keeping an eye on policy news. The crypto world is unpredictable; enjoy the game! If there are new developments, let's talk again.