📌 Current situation
- BTC Price: Closed the week at $119,400, holding above the key POC level of $118,000 (main trading volume zone) — this confirms the strength of the bulls.
- Key range: $116,415–$119,893 — support zone. Breaking $120,000 will open the way to ATH ($123,000+).
- Early growth on 11.08: Sharp price spike gathered seller liquidity, often preceding new highs.
🔍 Scenarios for the coming days
1. Optimistic (new ATH)
- Triggers:
- Holding above $120,500 → testing $123,000 and a leap to $131,000 (per Fibo levels).
- Positive CPI data on 12.08 (if inflation is below forecasts) — Fed rate cuts will support risk appetite.
- Institutional demand: ETF funds continued to flow in ($935 million on 09.08).
- Risks: Overbought (RSI 63), but there is still room before >70 zone.
2. Correction (pullback to $117,000–$112,000)
- Reasons:
- CME Gap: Unclosed gap $117,425–$119,000 may 'pull' the price.
- Profit taking: Major players may sell as they approach $123,000.
- Weak CPI data: Inflation growth will amplify fears of Fed tightening.
- Support levels:
- $117,425 (CME gap) → $116,000 (POC) → $112,000 (next stronghold).
📉 Key influencing factors
1. Macroeconomics (12–13.08):
- CPI and employment data — the main drivers of volatility. Decrease in inflation = increase in BTC, and vice versa.
2. Technicals:
- Volumes: High activity at $118,000 confirms institutional interest.
- CME futures: Closing the gap — a likely scenario, but not guaranteed in a strong trend.
3. Market psychology:
- Fear/greed (index 67) — neutral-optimistic backdrop.
- Altseason: Rotation from BTC to altcoins may weaken the momentum.
💡 Tactics for traders
- Long: Entry on a pullback to $117,000–$116,000 with a stop below $115,500. Targets: $123,000 → $131,000.
- Short: Only on a breakout of $116,000 and CPI > forecast. Target: $112,000.
- Hedging: Options on volatility around CPI release.
🚀 Conclusion
- Base scenario (60%): Growth to $123,000–$125,000 by the end of the week with a pullback to $117,000 after CPI.
- Alternative (40%): Sharp pullback to $112,000 on negative macro data, but followed by recovery by September.
- Main signal: Closing the week above $120,500 will confirm the strength of the bulls.
> Important: BTC has exited the classic 4-year cycle — now its movement depends more on macro factors and ETFs than on halving. Corrections will be less deep (30–50% vs 70–80% in the past), but volatility will remain.
