August 11th Monday Market Analysis

Looking back at the early hours, Bitcoin first pulled back to the low near 118,000, and after stabilizing in this area, it quickly rebounded, climbing to the high point of 119,247. It is currently oscillating around this range, with long and short forces temporarily in a stalemate. The trend of Ethereum is also quite noteworthy; it surged to a high of 4,258 before briefly retreating to around 4,186, but soon regained support and launched another upward attack, touching 4,250 at one point. It is currently consolidating in this area.

From the analysis of the 4-hour technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands are showing an upward diverging funnel shape, with prices closely adhering to the upper band, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is nearing exhaustion. The risk of a dead cross at high levels has significantly increased, and the probability of price returning to the middle band is high, as buying power has been excessively consumed. The recent price trend failed to form an effective breakthrough near previous highs, suggesting strong resistance in this area. Multiple technical indicators are resonating, collectively indicating that bullish power has clearly been overstretched. The market faces significant technical adjustment pressure in the short term, and I can first look to short during the high wave this morning.

Bitcoin: Short near 119,000-119,200, target 117,500

Ethereum: Short near 4,270, target around 4,200