Personal reference, not of value, weigh on your own, welcome to discuss.
1. Technical Indicator Analysis
Current Price: 116,584.1 USDT, 24-hour fluctuation is mild (-0.01%), near the middle band of the Bollinger Band (116,613.8), indicating a short-term oscillating market.
KDJ Indicator: K value (67.3) crosses above D value (55.6), J value (90.7) enters the overbought zone, need to be cautious of retracement risks.
RSI(6)=56.0: Neutral to Strong, but not overbought (above 70), still has room for upward movement.
MACD: DIF (374.8) is below DEA (546.2), histogram is negative (-171.4), indicating weak medium-term momentum.
Volume and OBV: 24-hour trading volume 77,625 BTC, MA(5) is below MA(10), indicating insufficient short-term buying.
OBV Energy Tide remains flat (9,894,440.9), no significant inflow of funds.
2. In-depth Analysis of On-chain Data
Open Interest and Fund Direction
Contract Open Interest: Total amount increased from 81.1K to 94.2K (+16%), total value reached 11.3B USDT, indicating leveraged funds entering the market.
Active Buying and Selling Volume: Recent active selling volume (red) slightly higher than buying volume (green), short pressure gradually increasing (e.g., sell volume 123.5K vs buy volume 82.3K on 08/09).
Long and Short Sentiment
Large Holder Positions: Long-Short Position Ratio 1.55-2.14, large holders still tend to go long, but the account number ratio (0.54-1.65) shows divergence among retail investors.
Retail Long-Short Ratio: Number ratio 0.37-1.66, recent increase in short positions (e.g., significant increase in short position ratio on 08/10).
Basis Risk
Basis (Contract Price - Index Price) fluctuates between -77.8 and 52.3, currently close to the zero axis, limited arbitrage opportunities.
3. Comprehensive Judgment and Suggestions
Short-term (1-3 days):
Price may continue to oscillate (range 116,300-117,900), if it breaks the upper Bollinger Band (120,658.7) can take a small long position, if it falls below the middle band (116,613.8) need to stop loss.
Monitor whether the KDJ J value falls, if it drops below 80 can partially take profits.
Medium-term (1 week):
If MACD forms a golden cross and OBV increases, it may initiate a new round of increase; conversely, if open interest declines, be cautious of a pullback to 112,500 (Bollinger Band lower band).
Risk Warning:
Large holder long-short ratio diverges from retail investors, need to be cautious of 'long killing long' market; avoid high leverage when the basis turns negative.
Operational Strategy:
Current suggestion is to observe, if it breaks 117,900 with increased volume, can try going long (target 119,000), stop loss at 115,800; if it falls below 116,000 and RSI<50, can gradually accumulate long positions.
