【Crash Alert】LA drops below 0.30! Panic selling has begun, should we buy the dip or wait a bit longer?
Quick overview: LA has plummeted from 0.45 to 0.29 in two weeks, on-chain spot net outflow continues to expand, contract long-short ratio has fallen for 7 consecutive days, and the market is transforming the 'value zone' into a 'panic zone'.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchoring zone: POC＝0.4031 (maximum transaction in 2 weeks), dense HVN band above 0.3855-0.4084, and empty LVN below 0.292-0.305.
2. 70% transaction volume coverage zone: 0.3537-0.4084, current price 0.2984 has moved out of this zone ≈1.3×ATR, on the edge of short-term oversold.
3. Momentum verification: UpVol accounts for 62% above POC, while almost 100% DownVol below LVN, with bears in control.
4. Bollinger Bands: Middle band 0.2981, lower band 0.2920, MA200=0.3314, deviation -9.95%, short-term deviation too large.
5. Contract positions: 24h increase in positions by 9.6%, but long-short ratio decreased from 1.44 to 1.33, with new positions mainly in shorts, showing no resistance from bulls.
Market cycle assessment
Mid-term bearish main decline phase, short-term entering 'oversold + chip vacuum' stage, there is a technical rebound demand, but the trend has not reversed.
Trading strategy (short-term quick in and out)
Aggressive: Buy lightly when a ≥1.5 times average volume bullish candle appears on a pullback to LVN 0.292-0.294, stop loss at 0.289 (below HVN), target 0.305/0.318, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.
Conservative: Wait for the price to reclaim 0.305 and 15min UpVol > 60% before re-entering, stop loss at 0.301, target 0.318, risk-reward ratio ≈3.1.
Cautious: If it breaks down below 0.289 with volume, follow the trend to short, stop loss at 0.294, target 0.277, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4.
Risk warning: If it closes below 0.285 in 30min or if the contract longs significantly decrease, the strategy becomes ineffective.
LP market making advice
It is recommended to place orders in the 0.289-0.318 range for market making:
• The lower edge 0.289 is LVN + Bollinger lower band, liquidity gaps are likely to attract rebounds;
• The upper edge 0.318 is a previous HVN, with concentrated selling pressure.
Width of the range ≈10%, funding rate neutral, can make a thin bilateral position to earn rebates, be sure to set a rebalancing threshold of 1.2×ATR.
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