In the last 24 hours, it has dropped 5.2%, contract holdings have decreased by 7.5%, and spot net outflow is 6.26M — panic selling has emerged. However, buy orders outnumber sell orders by 1.83 times, and the value area POC is still firmly anchored at 0.216, with bulls and bears in a 'volume standoff.' In brief: sentiment is at a freezing point, chips are concentrated, and it just takes a volume spike candle to determine the direction.
Key range structure and transaction volume distribution
• Value anchoring area (POC): 0.216, the largest transaction zone in the past two weeks, with 2.34 billion CFX accumulated above, considered the last line of defense for bulls.
• High transaction volume area (HVN): 0.204–0.210, 0.185–0.187, both areas show buyer-initiated transactions > 60%, serving as a short-term rebound buffer zone.
• Low transaction volume gap (LVN): 0.123–0.129, 0.278–0.281, once the price enters, it can easily 'vacuum' accelerate.
• 70%成交量覆盖区（Value Area）：0.182–0.242，当前价0.2037位于下轨内侧，未脱离价值区，视为中性偏低。
Momentum verification: Up Volume above POC accounts for 57%, not absolutely bullish; however, at 0.204 HVN, Up Volume reaches 73%, giving a short-term bullish advantage.
Market cycle judgment
The weekly line is still in the bull market pullback phase, and the daily line has entered the end of the 'volume wedge.' If it breaks down with volume below 0.182, it will confirm a second bottom on the weekly line; conversely, breaking above 0.242 will restart the main rise on the weekly line.
Trading strategy
• Short-term bullish pullback (aggressive):
Entry at 0.201–0.203 (upper edge of LVN + lower edge of Bollinger Band), stop loss at 0.197 (below recent HVN 0.197), first target at 0.216 (POC), second target at 0.228 (upper HVN). Risk-reward ratio ≈ 1:2.8.
• Chase the long after breaking the range (steady):
Wait for the 15-minute candlestick to increase in volume (transaction volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the last 20 candles) to break above 0.210, then rebound to 0.208 without breaking, enter the market, stop loss at 0.204, target at 0.228, risk-reward ratio ≈ 1:3.3.
• Bearish counterattack (conservative):
If it breaks below 0.197 and Down Volume > 55%, short at the rebound of 0.200–0.202, stop loss at 0.205, target at 0.182, risk-reward ratio ≈ 1:2.6.
Risk warning: If 0.197 is lost, contract holdings decrease > 5%, and macro sudden negative news arises, the strategy will become invalid.
LP market making suggestions
Recommend concentrating on market making in the range of 0.198–0.220:
• The lower edge 0.198 is the lower edge of the Bollinger Band + upper edge of LVN, providing strong support;
• The upper edge 0.220 is an HVN tested multiple times recently, with high liquidity demand;
• Range width ≈10%, annualized transaction fee income estimated at 18–25%, note to set ±3% rebalancing threshold to respond to sudden volatility.
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