ERA fell 3.6% in 24 hours, with the price close to the lower Bollinger Band and nearly 7% below MA200, extremely oversold but with moderate net inflow in the spot market, short-term may brew a 'squat jump'.

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Key Range Structure and Volume Distribution

1. Value Anchoring Zone (POC): 1.125, the most concentrated trading area in the past two weeks, also a mid-term dividing line for bulls and bears.
2. High Volume Node (HVN):
• 1.105～1.135: Triple overlapping HVN, forms a strong resistance wall above, a rebound to this level is likely to be hindered.
• 1.302: Second high HVN, if broken with volume, it opens up space to 1.47.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN):
• 0.929～0.957: Resonance of the lower Bollinger Band and the lower edge of the 70% volume coverage area, the current price is at the lower edge of this gap, a potential 'bear trap' area.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 1.086～1.775, the current price has fallen below the lower edge of 1.086, entering the 'oversold extension', technically has a mean reversion demand.

Momentum Validation:
• In the range of 0.948～0.968, Up Volume accounts for about 90%, short-term buying pressure is active;
• The volume of the past 5 15m K-line has expanded 1.3 times compared to the average, showing a preliminary 'increased volume stop decline'.

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Market Cycle Judgment

In the daily level 'end of decline' consolidation bottom-seeking period:
• Open interest has decreased for 7 consecutive days (-3.75%/24h), bears are gradually taking profits;
• Funding rates are slightly negative (-0.00023), shorting costs remain low, but there is no extreme panic.
=> Cycle Perspective: Short-term oversold rebound probability > continued breakdown probability.

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Trading Strategy (Based on VPVR Range Structure)

1. Entry
• Aggressive: Long at the current price 0.961±0.005, relying on the LVN gap + increased volume stop decline.
• Conservative: Wait for a 15m level pullback to 0.944～0.950 and the appearance of a Pin Bar, coupled with Up Volume > 60% to re-enter.
2. Stop Loss: 0.934 (below the recent HVN at 0.939 outside -0.5×ATR≈0.005).
3. Target:
• T1=1.105 (first HVN), T2=1.125 (POC).
4. Risk-Reward Ratio:
• Entry at 0.961, stop loss at 0.934 (-2.8%), target at 1.125 (+17%) => RR≈6.1:1.

Risk Warning: If the daily close falls below 0.929 (lower Bollinger Band), the range structure fails, and a reversal to short with a target of 0.85.

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LP Market Making Suggestions

It is recommended to place bilateral liquidity in the range of 0.94～1.10:
• The lower edge is close to LVN + lower Bollinger Band, supporting potential bottom-fishing orders;
• The upper edge is close to the first HVN at 1.105, satisfying short-term profit-taking pressure;
• Range width ≈ 16%, annualized fee income can reach 25%～35% (based on current volatility and trading volume calculations).

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