The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, only 4% away from MA200, and the trading volume is quietly increasing—very similar to the night before last year’s SHIB reversal, now we are just waiting for a 'volume breakout through LVN' ignition signal.

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Key Intervals and Trading Volume Distribution
· Value Anchor Area (POC): Around 0.0400, 1.42 billion coins have changed hands here in the past two weeks, which is a 'psychological barrier' that bulls must reclaim.
· High Trading Volume Area (HVN):
① 0.0390-0.0396 (880 million - 1.33 billion coins) — if it rebounds to this point, it is highly likely to meet resistance and fall back;
② 0.0410-0.0417 (980 million - 1.02 billion coins) — the second selling pressure wall.
· Low Trading Volume Gap (LVN):
① 0.0322-0.0325 (160 million coins) — the current price is right at its upper edge, breaking below with volume will directly test 0.0308;
② 0.0332-0.0338 (50 million - 90 million coins) — the first gap for rebound, breaking through can quickly rise to 0.0348.
· 70% Trading Volume Coverage Area: 0.0361-0.0461, current price is at the lower edge of the range at 11%, technically already in the 'oversold zone'.

Momentum Verification
· Down Volume near POC accounts for 71%, bears still dominate;
· However, the recent 4h-8h contract net inflow changed from -1.17 M to +1.44 M, indicating signs of short covering in the short term;
· The Bollinger Band 1h width is only 3%, it may expand and change direction at any time.

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Market Cycle Judgement
Daily level: has retraced 41% from the 0.0556 high, currently in the 'mid-bear market consolidation phase'; weekly RSI has not diverged, difficult to say it will reverse, can only consider it as a rebound from overselling.

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Trading Strategy (Short-term 4-12h)
· Aggressive Long: Rebound at 0.0322 LVN shows ≥1.5 times average volume bullish candlestick, enter at 0.0323-0.0325, stop loss at 0.0317 (lower HVN edge), target 0.0348 / 0.0361, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8:1.
· Steady Long: Wait for the 15m closing price to stay above 0.0332 LVN, re-enter if it does not break on retracement, stop loss at 0.0328, same target, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.2:1.
· Conservative Short: If it breaks below 0.0317 and 15m Down Volume >60%, chase short to 0.0308, stop loss at 0.0321, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1:1.
Risk Warning: If 24h OI drops another 5% or more or the market crashes, the strategy becomes invalid.

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LP Market Making Suggestions
Range: 0.0315-0.0345 (covers current LVN and first rebound gap);
Reason: Bollinger Band is extremely narrow + trading volume gap, once the price chooses a direction, it will quickly leave this area, suitable for collecting high fees; maintain a 1:1.2 bid-ask volume (slightly more sell) to hedge potential downside.

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