btc

A review of the July Federal Reserve meeting revealed only a slight downward revision to the economic outlook. At the press conference, Powell expressed greater concern about inflation uncertainty than concerns about declining employment, making further rate cuts more difficult and signaling a hawkish stance. The most hawkish signal is that the labor market is balanced between supply and demand, while the inflation gap is high, so the policy rate needs to remain constrained. Regarding asset allocation: Entering the second half of the year, large-scale tax cuts and expectations that the US economy will avoid a "technical" recession will replace the weak dollar, further supporting US dollar assets, particularly US stocks. Real wages rose from 1.1% to 1.2% year-on-year in the first six months, reaching a peak of 2%. This supports the maintenance of US household consumption spending and economic growth momentum. It also means that tariff costs may be more easily passed through to consumer prices, increasing the risk of upside inflation in the US. #美联储利率决议