๐ Market Snapshot & Trend Context
Current Price: ~โฏ$114,000โ$115,000
Trend: Recovery from dip; testing midโterm resistance zone
Momentum: RSI & StochRSI showing potential bounce from oversold region
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๐๏ธ Essential Technical Zones
Support Areas (Blue/Green zones on chart):
$111,000โ$113,000 โ aligning with 0.5โ0.618 Fibonacci retracement off recent high
$108,000โ$110,000 โ major demand zone and previous breakout range
Resistance Areas (Red zones on chart):
$115,500โ$116,000 โ short to mid-term horizontal resistance and trendline confluence
$118,000โ$120,000 โ upper channel resistance and recent record highs
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๐ Chart Structure & Key Patterns
BTC is moving within a descending channel flagged for possible breakout
A bullish flag or channel breakout above $116K would confirm a reversal toward higher targets
History suggests CME price gaps in the $115Kโ119K range may act as magnets for price grabs before continuation
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๐ Price Predictions & Trade Scenarios
๐ข Scenario A: Bullish Rebound Entry
Entry Zone: $113,000โ$114,000 (above demand zone + confirmation candle)
Targets:
TP1: $115,500โ$116,000
TP2: $118,000โ$119,000
If breakout confirmed, extended target: ~$122,000โ$124,000
StopโLoss: Below $111,500
Risk:Reward: ~โฏ1:2 to 1:3
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๐ด Scenario B: Resistance Rejection Short
Trigger: 4H candle rejection or false breakout near $116,000โ$117,000
Entry Range: $116,500โ$117,200
Targets:
TP1: $113,000
TP2: $110,000โ$108,000
StopโLoss: Above $117,500
Risk:Reward: ~โฏ1:2 to 1:3+
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๐ก๏ธ Risk Management Essentials
Cap position risk to 0.5โ1% of total account capital
Use tight stopโlosses and avoid scaling into trades near resistance without confirmation
Scale out partial profits at TP1 and move stopโloss to breakeven
Monitor BTC ETF flows and macro news โ they heavily influence volatility
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๐ฎ Longer-Term Outlook & Predictions
Analysts like Geoff Kendrick expect BTC to reach $120,000 in Q2 2025, with a potential annual target of $200,000 based on ETF flows and macro catalysts
Cantor Fitzgerald projects possible upside to $1 million over a multi-year horizon, though this sits in long-term bullish frameworks
Conservative models estimate a one-month target at ~$122,000 with short-term downside possible to ~$110,000 if support breaks
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โ Quick Summary Table
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Zone Risk:Reward
Bullish Rebound Long $113Kโ$114K Below $111.5K $115.5K โ $118K+ ~1:2โ3
Rejection Short $116.5Kโ$117.2K Above $117.5K $113K โ $108โ110K ~1:2โ3+