Today's Observation... What happened with this wave? Mysteriously...

Last night, this wave came down quite strangely... I looked at various viewpoints, but there was no definite explanation... Some say it was due to rebalancing at the end of July, some say it was because Figma's listing drained liquidity, and others say it was because of old Trump imposing tariffs... (Actually, it was postponed again)

In short, it’s quite mysterious... (It can't possibly be for hedging tonight's non-farm payroll, is there really that much risk to hedge?)

However, what’s noticeable is that during the downward process, the spot premium has been continuously rising, while the funding rates at various exchanges have turned negative, indicating that this wave is primarily driven down by the futures market...

Looking back at yesterday, I took a wave down from the high short position below 11.90. I also took a wave from the aggressive long position at 1178... Before going to sleep, I saw a large order at 11.74 and thought that I could probably jump up from here... I placed an order at 11.74 and went to sleep... The result was that when I woke up, it was already at 11.5x?! 11.74 did bounce, but it didn't reach the take profit point I set before sleeping... Then it quickly dropped below 11.50 (which was also the final liquidation point for today's 400 million whale). During the drop, I took a wave at 11.44... I sold half at 11.58... I managed to recover the loss from the midnight wave at 11.74 and made a small profit...

This position is a bit chaotic now... A mysteriously contract-driven quick drop has filled the gap at 1140 that has been there for over half a month... But it’s just a shape fill; the actual on-chain turnover hasn’t been filled much... Meanwhile, there is still a gap around 11.20...

So based on the viewpoint of on-chain analysts, if it goes up in a V shape here, that’s fine, but if it fails to do so, it might need to oscillate between 11.4~11.2 for a while to fill this gap and turnover, and those who need to exit can exit, and those who need to enter can re-enter...

As for the technical aspect, I won't look too much into it today. If it’s this kind of mysterious market, the technicals can easily fail...

Today's thought process... After reaching 11.60, the market is a bit soft on the way down... If it doesn't drop to 11.44 for breakeven, the remaining half position can still be held until before the non-farm payroll... If it hits breakeven soon, I’ll just observe for now... I’ll wait for the non-farm results before taking further action... Unless it drops to the gap at 11.2x before the non-farm... then I can still make a move for a low long...