Based on a comprehensive analysis of market dynamics, technical indicators, and policy events, the trend of Trump coin (TRUMP) in the coming week (August 3, 2025 - August 9, 2025) is expected to show a weak oscillation pattern, but there are short-term rebound opportunities. Here are the key analyses and predictions:
📉 I. Negative factors and suppression forces
Overall market risk aversion is heating up
On August 2, the cryptocurrency market plummeted across the board, with Bitcoin dropping over 2%, Ethereum falling 5%, over $700 million liquidated in 24 hours, and 160,000 people being liquidated, 90% of which were long positions.
Deteriorating macro environment: U.S. July non-farm data far below expectations (only an increase of 73,000), and the data for May-June was significantly revised down by 258,000, intensifying fears of economic recession, with risk assets generally under pressure.
Token unlocking selling pressure
In mid-July, approximately 900 million TRUMP tokens were unlocked, causing a 45% increase in circulation and creating sustained selling pressure. Historical data shows that such large-scale unlocks often lead to a short-term price drop of 10%-20%.
Weak technicals
Key resistance level suppression: Current price fluctuates in the range of 9.60-9.80, facing strong resistance at 10.30. If it cannot break through, it may drop to the support at 8.30.
Bearish alignment of moving averages: The 50-day EMA (9.26) and the 200-day EMA (11.31) form a death cross, indicating a bearish short-term trend.
📈 II. Potential rebound catalysts
Benefits of migrating to the Tron chain
TRUMP plans to migrate to the Tron blockchain, with Tron founder Justin Sun planning to increase holdings of $100 million worth of tokens, which may boost market confidence.
Tron's high throughput and low transaction fees may attract more trading and enhance liquidity.
Policy expectation speculation
If the cryptocurrency legislation promoted by the Trump administration (such as the CLARITY Act) makes breakthroughs during the Congress's 'Crypto Week,' it may stimulate sentiment in the short term.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 80%. If market risk appetite rebounds, meme coins may follow with a rebound.
📊 III. Key price ranges and operational strategies
Key price level type importance strategy significance $10.30 resistance ★★★★ Breakthrough can chase long, target $11.50 $9.80 short-term equilibrium point ★★★ Bull-bear dividing line $8.30 support ★★★★ Break below accelerates downward $7.50 strong support ★★★ Bottom fishing range, stop loss $7.00
Operational suggestions:
Short position strategy: Short after a rebound to 9.90-10.20 faces resistance, stop loss at 10.50, target at 8.80-$8.30.
Long position strategy: If 8.30 stabilizes, consider light long positions, stop loss at 8.00, target at 9.50; aggressive traders can bet on policy benefits to break through 10.30 and chase long.
⚠️ IV. Risk warning
Regulatory uncertainty
Trump coin is questioned as a 'political payment tool.' If the SEC strengthens its scrutiny of meme coins (such as categorizing them as securities), it may trigger panic selling.
If the legislative deadlock during Congress's 'Crypto Week' continues, it will weaken expectations for policy benefits.
Meme coin attributes are fragile
TRUMP lacks practical applications, and its price is highly dependent on Trump's personal popularity and community sentiment. If Trump's approval rating declines or negative news emerges, the price may crash.
🔮 V. Future trend prediction for the coming week
High probability scenario (60%): Oscillate down to the 8.30-8.50 range, constrained by macro risks and unlocking selling pressure.
Secondary probability (30%): If the migration to Tron proceeds smoothly or there is a policy breakthrough, rebound to 10.00-10.30.
Low probability event (10%): Deteriorating non-farm data triggers expectations of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a violent rebound in risk assets, with TRUMP surging above $11.00.
💎 Summary
In the coming week, TRUMP coin is cautiously bearish, with a core volatility range of 8.30-10.30:
Downside risks: Deteriorating macro environment + Token selling pressure + Technical suppression;
Upside opportunity: Tron chain migration + policy breakthrough + rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Investors need to closely monitor the progress of the cryptocurrency bill in Congress on August 5 and statements from Federal Reserve officials, strictly set stop losses to avoid excessive leverage exposure.