Based on comprehensive market dynamics and technical indicator analysis, Dogecoin (DOGE) is expected to show a characteristic of oscillation and breakthrough attempts in the coming week (August 12-18, 2025). The core trend and operation strategies are as follows:
📈 Price Range Prediction
Key support level:
Short-term support: 0.2150 (Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level and psychological barrier resonance), if it drops below, it may test down to 0.200 - $0.195 (institutional cost zone).
Strong support zone: $0.180 (technical bottom formed by three bottoms), this position is the core defense line for bulls.
Key resistance level:
Recent target: 0.2455 (Bollinger Band upper resistance and triangle formation resistance), breaking this level may push towards 0.2668 (Fibonacci 0.382 extension).
Breakthrough target: If stabilized at 0.2668, it may trigger a short squeeze, targeting 0.2865 (Fibonacci 0.5 level).
🔍 Core signals from the technical aspect
Long and short competition intensifies:
Symmetrical triangle breakout imminent: the 4-hour chart shows prices continuously narrowing, with higher lows. If volume breaks $0.2397 (upper edge of the triangle), it will confirm a short-term upward trend.
Divergence in indicators:
MACD: The histogram has turned from negative to positive, with short-term buying momentum increasing, but the recent shortening of the histogram suggests a weakening upward momentum.
RSI: Current value 54.05 (neutral range), not overbought, leaving room for upward movement, but beware of the risk of pullback after a surge.
Moving average system support: Prices are above all key EMAs (20/50/100/200 periods), with the 50-day EMA ($0.2233) forming dynamic support.
On-chain and sentiment aspects:
Whales continue to accumulate: In the past week, large addresses have cumulatively purchased over 230 million DOGE (about $50 million), leading to tighter circulating supply, and potential supply tightening may push prices up.
Derivatives risk: A large number of short positions are accumulating above 0.25; breaking 0.2455 could trigger a $100 million-level liquidation, accelerating the rise.
⚡️ Key Driving Events
Macroeconomic data:
August 12 U.S. CPI announcement: If inflation ≤ expectations (2.8%), it may drive risk assets up and help DOGE break resistance; if it exceeds expectations, it may retest the $0.215 support.
ETF dynamics:
Market expectations for DOGE spot ETF are heating up; if approval signals are released this week, it will become a key catalyst for breaking $0.25.
Community and celebrity effects:
Elon Musk's historic statements have previously driven a 50% single-day surge in DOGE; close attention should be paid to his social media movements.
💎 Operation Strategy Recommendation
Breakthrough scenario (60% probability):
If CPI is mild + volume breaks 0.2397, **go long** target 0.2455 → 0.2668, stop loss below 0.223.
After a pullback to stabilize between 0.215 - 0.200, build positions in batches, betting on a technical rebound.
Pullback scenario (40% probability):
If CPI exceeds expectations or falls below 0.215, **wait and see** until it stabilizes at the 0.195 - 0.180 support zone before entering, stop loss below 0.175.
Position Management:
Leverage ≤ 3 times, avoid heavy trading operations before and after the CPI data announcement (August 12).
⚠️ Risk Warning
Sentiment fluctuations: 55% of DOGE's price movements are driven by social media sentiment, sudden negative comments may lead to a flash crash.
Technical failure: If the third bottom fails (falls below 0.180), it may trigger panic selling to the 0.15 area.
Whale selling pressure: Recent increase in DOGE stock at exchanges may lead to cashing out by big players, suppressing rebound height.
💎 Summary
In the coming week, DOGE is likely to oscillate in the 0.200 - 0.245 range, breaking $0.2455 is a key signal to start an accelerated trend. The technical aspect is supported by the symmetrical triangle and increased whale holdings, but caution is needed regarding CPI data and sentiment fluctuation risks. It is recommended to focus on event-driven strategies, strictly set stop losses, and closely track market reactions after the August 12 CPI data and Musk's dynamics.