Based on comprehensive market dynamics and technical indicator analysis, Solana (SOL) is expected to exhibit a characteristic of oscillation and breakthrough attempts in the coming week (August 12 - 18, 2025), with the core trend and operational strategies as follows:
📈 Price range forecast
Key support levels:
Short-term support: 174 - 177 (resonance with the low from 4 hours ago and psychological level).
Strong support zone: 167 - 170 (50-day moving average and institutional cost area), if broken, it may test $160 (Fibonacci retracement level).
Key resistance level:
Recent target: 186 - 187 (resistance at the downtrend line and psychological level), a breakthrough may challenge 195 - 200 (Fibonacci extension level).
Breakthrough signal: If the daily closing price stabilizes above 186, it may trigger a short squeeze, accelerating the push towards the 200 mark.
🔍 Core technical signals
Intensifying long-short battle:
Bullish pattern confirmation: The weekly chart forms a 'cup and handle' pattern, with long-term targets pointing to 1,315, but short-term must first break the 200 resistance.
Indicator divergence:
MACD: A death cross signal appears on the 4-hour chart, short selling momentum increases, but the shortening histogram suggests weakened selling pressure.
RSI: Current value is 62.5 (neutral range), not overbought, leaving room for upward movement.
Moving average system: The 50-day moving average ($169.71) provides effective support; if the 21-week EMA and 33-week SMA form a 'golden cross', it may trigger a 120% level increase.
Volatility warning:
Bollinger Bands narrowing (174 - 185): Indicates that the price is about to choose a direction, a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by volume.
Derivative risk: A large number of short positions are piled up above $186, a breakthrough may trigger a $100 million level liquidation, accelerating the rise.
🐳 Fund flow and sentiment
Institutional behavior divergence:
Negative news: Galaxy Digital transferred 224,000 SOL (approximately $41.12 million) to exchanges, increasing short-term selling pressure.
Positive news: Nasdaq-listed company DeFi Technologies increased its holdings by 61,000 SOL, showing strong institutional long-term layout willingness.
ETF dynamics:
REX-Osprey SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $6.4 million in one day, but BlackRock clearly stated 'no submission plans for SOL ETF' currently, suppressing short-term expectations.
⚡️ Key event-driven
Macroeconomic data:
August 12 U.S. CPI announcement: If inflation ≤ expectations (2.8%), it may drive SOL to break through 186; if it exceeds expectations, it may test the 170 support.
On-chain risk:
FTX/Alameda redeemed 190,000 SOL (valued at $35.52 million) for creditor compensation, potential selling pressure needs to be monitored.
Ecological progress:
Hong Kong Stock Exchange OSL HK opens SOL retail trading, adding new liquidity entry.
Solana DEX trading volume accounts for 39.6%, ecological activity supports token demand.
💎 Suggested operational strategy
Breakthrough scenario (probability 55%):
If CPI is moderate + volume breaks through 186, **go long** targeting 195 - 200, with a stop loss at 177.
After stabilizing at 174 - 177, build positions in batches to bet on a technical rebound.
Correction scenario (probability 45%):
If CPI exceeds expectations or falls below 174, **wait and see** until the 167 - 170 support zone stabilizes before entering, with a stop loss below 160.
Position management:
Leverage ≤ 3 times, avoid heavy operations before and after the CPI announcement (August 12).
⚠️ Risk warning
Regulatory uncertainty: The SEC has not clearly defined the attributes of SOL, and an adverse ruling could lead to a flash crash.
Technical failure: If the 'cup and handle' pattern fails to break, it may return to the 160 - 170 oscillation range.
Whale selling pressure: The inventory of SOL on exchanges has increased, large holders cashing out may trigger a local correction.
💎 Summary
In the coming week, SOL is likely to oscillate widely in the 170 - 186 range, breaking $186 is the key signal to trigger an accelerated market. The technical aspect is supported by a long-term bullish pattern, but vigilance is needed against volatility caused by CPI data and institutional selling. It is recommended to primarily adopt an event-driven strategy with strict stop-loss settings, focusing on tracking market reactions after the August 12 CPI data.
