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Bitcoin dropped again from early this morning to around 112700, while Ethereum spiked to 3431. The downward momentum remains strong. This 4-hour level drop is expected to continue for a few more days and will not end quickly.

Everyone is very worried about whether Bitcoin will plummet below 110,000 and then continue to drop below 100,000 without any rebounds. Currently, the probability of this situation occurring is relatively low, as there is usually a certain next high point after the daily level ends.

Therefore, next, regardless of whether Bitcoin breaks below 112000, there will be a 4-hour rebound. If the next 4-hour rebound is very strong, it is possible to reach a new high point just above 123218. Normally, it should not create a new high but break a previous high point instead. We will see the specific trends later.

BTC Short-term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market, and this is merely for reference.

1H:

1-hour level: Bitcoin is currently in the third wave of a 1-hour downtrend within a 4-hour downtrend. It is uncertain whether it will break below 112722 again. It is expected that there should be a 1-hour rebound in the next couple of days, focusing on the area around 116000 to 117000, followed by another 1-hour downtrend. The overall target for the 4-hour downtrend is around 112000 or slightly below that level. Normally, we might see a new 4-hour rebound in the latter half of next week, focusing on the area around 118000 to 120000. If it is strong, it may create a new high.

15M:

15-minute level: If it does not drop below 113000 again, then the short term should already be in a 1-hour rebound. If it breaks 113000 again tonight, it may drop to around 112000 before making a 1-hour rebound.

ETH

Will Ethereum create a historical new high before this year's Spring Festival?

First, my opinion: I believe that by the end of this year, Ethereum will likely break 4800.

Technical analysis:

Since 2024, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to breach the heavy resistance zone of 3900 to 4100. The first time it reached around 4100, it quickly dropped to just over 2800. The second time, it reached 4000 but didn’t break through and quickly dropped to just over 2100. The third time, it reached 4107 and then turned down to around 1385. Each attempt to breach 4000 has resulted in increasingly larger drops. However, strangely, despite the larger drops, the daily level always manages to rebound back to around 4000.

This indicates that the bullish strength of Ethereum is still present and very strong. Otherwise, in a situation where prices keep falling deeper, if the bullish momentum were not strong, the rebounds should be getting weaker each time. This year, Ethereum has surged directly from 1385 to over 3900.

Currently, this is the fourth attempt to breach 4000, but the market tends to follow such patterns. If a resistance level is tested repeatedly over a long period, the more times it is tested, the more likely it will eventually be broken. Therefore, it is highly probable that Ethereum will eventually stabilize above 4000 and attempt to reach the historical high of 4800.

Fundamentals:

Throughout July, more institutions have been buying Ethereum, with significant purchases from 2500 to 3900. Compared to last year when Ethereum repeatedly tried to breach 4000, this time institutions are indeed entering with large funds. Therefore, merely reaching 4000 is unlikely to meet the expectations of institutional entry; it must rise above 5000 to align with the interests of all parties.

Additionally, it is expected that the SEC will pass the Ethereum staking ETF by the end of the year. Currently, the Ethereum spot ETF cannot participate in staking, which means that institutions buying Ethereum ETFs cannot enjoy the staking benefits. However, once the staking ETF is approved, with an annual return of 3% to 6%, more institutions are likely to buy in.

I vaguely feel that the current Ethereum is somewhat similar to Ethereum at the end of October 2020. Perhaps in the coming months, Ethereum might have a good upward trend. Do you think the rise of Ethereum is on the way?

At the 4-hour level, Ethereum dropped below 3500 today, so it is very likely that a 4-hour correction is on the way. The focus is on the area around 3100 to 3300. As long as it does not drop below 3000, Ethereum still has a chance to surge towards 4000 again.

1-hour level: First, we need to see if a 1-hour rebound occurs here, with the rebound focusing on 3600 to 3700. After that, there should still be a 1-hour downtrend.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction is upward, currently on a new upward trend at the weekly level, with an overall target above 150,000.

Daily level: Direction is upward, currently experiencing a daily rebound, with the target for this upward movement being around 120,000 to 130,000.

4-hour level: Direction is downward, currently running at the 4-hour level, and is expected to continue for a few more days.

1-hour level: Direction is upward, looking at a 1-hour rebound in the short term.

15-minute level: Direction is upward. If it breaks 114500 again, it confirms that a 1-hour rebound has occurred.