That winter of 2018, I squatted on the balcony, smoking, my ashtray overflowing with cigarette butts. My mobile banking account showed 203,654.72 yuan—all I had left from my one million yuan loss, and the final straw my wife left me. The note "Divorce if you touch crypto again" was still taped to the refrigerator. From the living room came the sound of a crying child. At that moment, I felt like life was a candlestick chart frozen in time by a bear market, with no hope of a rebound.
Who could have imagined that nine years later, that number would reach 40 million? This isn't some myth of wealth creation; it's a survival strategy forged bit by bit through countless three-a-morning review sessions, crumpled from seven notebooks filled with margin calls. Today, I'm not going to talk about how to get rich overnight, but how to carve a path for yourself amidst the savagery of the cryptocurrency world, using the blunt knife of MACD.
1. Dark Years: Three Bloody Lessons Learned from an 800,000 Yuan Tuition Fee
When I rushed into the cryptocurrency world in 2015 with 1 million yuan in my pocket, I thought it was an ATM. Three years later, I realized it was a meat grinder.
1. Buying the Stock: Burning in the Flames of Greed
In 2017, when BTC surged from $1,000 to $20,000, I added to my holdings like crazy, even plowing my house-buying savings into it. At the time, I looked at the candlestick chart and thought it could still rise, but I didn't notice the MACD indicator was shrinking—that was the market's quiet retreat. When the 2018 crash hit, I held on, hoping to "run on the rebound." I watched helplessly as my account balance plummeted from $800,000 to $300,000. It felt like I was being held underwater, without even the strength to struggle.
2. Contract Gambling: Leverage is a poison that accelerates death
At my peak, I used 50x leverage in the futures market, thinking I'd "make it back in one go." I ended up getting liquidated three times, each time consoling myself with the promise of a rebound, only to be wiped out completely by a single pin. On the day of my final liquidation, I stood outside the exchange all night, staring at my own reflection on the glass, like a gambler who'd lost everything.
3. Losing control of my emotions: Letting my family pay for my willfulness
When my losses were at their worst, I took my anger out on my family. My wife hid my bank card, and I threw cups. My child cried for a hug, but I yelled, "Leave me alone." The air in my house was cold during that time. One day, I found my wife packed her bags and left a note saying, "I'll divorce you if you ever touch crypto again." It was like a scalding cold water was poured over me. It dawned on me that I wasn't just losing all my money, I was also destroying my entire family.
Turning point: At the end of 2018, I transferred my last 200,000 yuan to a new account and set three rules for myself, writing them on a cigarette pack and carrying them with me:
Never fully invest, single currency position never exceeds 15%
I only do spot trading and never use contract leverage.
All transactions must wait for MACD to give a clear signal, even if you miss 100 opportunities
Now it seems that it was these three iron laws that pulled me back from the edge of the cliff.
2. Five core logics of MACD strategy: using indicators to see through the market's bottom line
Many people use the MACD as a fortune-telling tool, focusing solely on the golden and dead crosses. It took me 800,000 yuan in tuition to understand that the MACD isn't a signal flare; it's the market's electrocardiogram, telling you where your funds are headed and how much momentum you have left.
1. Trend Judge: The distance between the two lines hides the code for ups and downs
The golden cross and the dead cross are just appearances. The key lies in the "distance" between the DIF and DEA lines:
The gap continues to widen (for example, DIF is increasingly higher than DEA) = the trend is accelerating (for example, after BTC broke through $10,000 in 2020, the gap between the two lines was 3 times larger than usual, and the main upward trend began)
The gap begins to shrink (the two lines slowly approach each other) = the trend is weakening (when BTC hit $69,000 in 2021, the price was clearly a new high, but the gap between the two lines was half of the previous high, which was a precursor to a sharp drop)
When I look at the market now, the first thing I see is the double-line spacing, which is more reliable than any analyst’s call.
2. The breathing rhythm of the energy column: Top divergence is the market's "lifesaver"
The color and length of the energy column are like the market taking a breath:
The red column is shortening while the price is still reaching new highs = a top divergence (when ETH hit $4,000 in 2024, the red column was two-thirds shorter than the previous high. I sold half of my position that day and avoided the subsequent 30% plunge)
The green column is enlarged but the price does not hit a new low = bottom divergence (when SOL fell to $8 in 2023, the green column was twice as thick as the previous low, but the price did not fall below it. This is because funds were secretly buying stocks, and later it rebounded to $40)
Remember: Divergence does not mean an immediate reversal, but it at least means that "the current trend can no longer hold." At this time, reducing your position is always better than standing guard.
3. Zero Axis Watershed: The Life and Death Line of Bull and Bear Markets
The zero axis is like the "sea level" of the market. The DIF line is above and below the zero axis, and the gameplay is completely different:
DIF line crosses zero = bulls gain a foothold (in October 2023, when BTC broke through $30,000, the DIF line just crossed zero, and I immediately increased my position from 30% to 50%, taking advantage of the entire rally)
DIF line breaks below zero = shorts take control (after the LUNA crash in May 2022, the DIF line fell below zero. I liquidated my position and took a 3-month break, avoiding the subsequent 60% decline)
I have an iron rule: when the DIF line is below the zero axis, the position will never exceed 20%, no matter how tempting the opportunity is.
4. Three-cycle resonance: a "nuclear weapon" to improve your winning rate
Signals from a single period are easy to deceive, but if signals from three periods appear at the same time, the winning rate will soar:
Daily MACD golden cross + weekly DIF above zero + 4-hour energy bar expansion = high-probability long opportunity (in 2024, when BNB rose from $200 to $600, all three cycles met the target simultaneously, and I tripled my profit by "increasing my position in batches")
Daily death cross + weekly DIF below zero + 4-hour green bar expansion = short signal (before the 2021 altcoin crash, this combination appeared 5 times, and each time it avoided a drop of more than 10%)
It's like three doctors saying "it's time to take medicine" at the same time, you can't not believe it, right?
5. Volume Verification: A "Mirror" to Filter Out False Signals
No matter how beautiful the MACD signal is, it is useless without the support of trading volume:
When a golden cross occurs, the trading volume must be more than 30% higher than the average volume of the previous 5 days (when ETH broke through $2,000 in 2023, the trading volume suddenly increased by 50%, which was a true breakthrough when the golden cross appeared).
When a death cross occurs, the increase in trading volume is often a sign of "panic selling" (when BTC fell below $40,000 in 2022, the trading volume was twice the usual level. Don't buy the dip when this kind of death cross occurs).
I have suffered too many losses from "false signals". Now that my trading volume does not meet the requirements, I just ignore even the best signals.
III. Actual Turnaround: Four Key Steps from 200,000 to 40 Million
2019: 200,000 → 1,000,000 (grabbing the first bite of meat after the bear market)
When BTC fell to $3,000, the weekly MACD showed a bottoming divergence (the price reached a new low, but the MACD didn't), and the daily chart showed three consecutive days of strong bullish candlesticks. I entered the market with a strategy of "starting with $50,000 and adding $20,000 every 5% increase." When I reached $14,000, the weekly chart showed a topping divergence, so I decisively liquidated my position. This trade taught me: be bold in buying rallies in a bear market, and be bold in holding on to pullbacks in the early stages of a bull market.
2020: 1 million → 5 million (precise timing of the DeFi bull market)
When ETH broke through $200, the 4-hour MACD lines remained firmly above zero, with each column growing thicker. I used a "base position of 300,000 yuan + additional positions on breakouts" strategy, adding 50,000 yuan every time it pulled back to the 20-day moving average, avoiding chasing highs. I made 4 million yuan on this wave, and more importantly, I added my wife's name to the real estate deed—trust is more important than making money.
2021: 5 million → 20 million (selling at the top is more important than buying at the bottom)
When BTC hit $69,000, I noticed the daily top divergence and the momentum bar were only 30% of the previous high. I started reducing my position a week in advance, reducing it by 20% each week. While the market was still shouting, "$100,000 isn't a dream," I had already liquidated 80% of my position. Later, BTC fell to $29,000, and the $20 million in my account remained completely unchanged. That's when I realized that those who know how to sell are the masters.
2022-2024: 20 million → 40 million (Using discipline to combat volatility)
During the past two years of bear market volatility, I relied on the "three-cycle resonance + volume verification" strategy for swing trading, withdrawing 10% of my principal whenever I reached a 30% profit. While I didn't catch those skyrocketing altcoins, my account has steadily grown like a staircase. Now my wife proactively asks, "How's the MACD today?" and my kids know, "Don't interrupt Dad when he's watching the charts." It turns out that successful trading can actually mend family relationships.
IV. Three Iron Laws of Survival: A Survival Philosophy More Important Than Technology
1. Stop loss is like breathing, do it every day
Daily MACD Death Cross + Breaking Below the 20-Day Moving Average = Unconditional Stop Loss (When SOL fell below $100 in 2023, I used this stop loss rule and only lost 5%, avoiding the subsequent 40% decline)
A single loss will never exceed 3% of the principal (with a principal of 5 million, the maximum loss per trade is 150,000. Even if you make 10 mistakes in a row, you still have 3.5 million to recover)
I set the stop-loss line as the exchange's default conditional order, which automatically closes the position at the specified time. I never rely on "willpower" to hold the order.
2. Profit Harvesting Clock: Make the money you earn truly yours
When the profit reaches 30%, withdraw the principal first (for example, if the principal is 100,000 and the profit is 30,000, withdraw 100,000 and use the 30,000 profit to play)
If a top divergence signal appears on the weekly chart, immediately reduce your holdings by 50% (when ETH rose to $3,000 in 2024, I reduced my holdings according to this rule. Although I lost 10% of my profit, I retained most of the profit during the subsequent pullback)
Remember: the numbers in your account are not considered money, only the numbers in your bank card are considered money.
3. Absolutely forbidden areas: These pits may return to zero if you touch them once
Don’t touch coins ranked outside the top 50 by market capitalization (I bought an altcoin ranked in the top 100 in 2019, but the project owner ran away and I lost everything)
Do not trade for 24 hours before and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting (interest rate changes can trigger extreme market conditions. During a 2022 meeting, I forced a trade and lost $800,000)
Ignore any "inside information" (so-called "banker insider information" is 99% a trap to get you to take over)
5. For those who are still losing money: Three suggestions to change your destiny
Now print out the candlestick charts of the last three losses and review them using the MACD indicator:
You will find that 80% of the losses violate the most basic signals (such as buying during a death cross and not selling during a top divergence).
90% of margin calls occur when the energy column shrinks abnormally (the market is already reminding you that "the trend is about to change").
Start today by doing these three small things:
Reduce leverage to less than 3x (preferably using spot trading; leverage is a tool for professional traders, not a gambler's chip)
Only analyze 3 MACD signals every day (DIF line position, energy column change, volume coordination), and do not look at more than
If the loss exceeds 5%, shut down the device and exit the market immediately, even if the sky falls (when emotions are out of control, any decision will be wrong)
Remember this: There are always opportunities in the cryptocurrency world, but you only have one chance to invest your capital. I've spent nine years proving that even with only $200,000 left, as long as you maintain discipline and use the right methods, you can still climb out of the quagmire.
The four steps to this nine-year turnaround reveal the simplest logic: buy at bear market bottoms, hold on to bull market pullbacks, sell at tops, and profit steadily in volatile markets by trading in short positions. More importantly, withdraw 10% of your principal for every 30% profit, transforming your "account number" into "a real estate deed in your wife's name"—this is the ultimate meaning of trading: money is a tool, not a shackle.
If you are still struggling with losses and are always in the cycle of "chasing up and selling down"; if you want to know how to accurately read the MACD double-line distance, how to choose the specific period of three-cycle resonance, and what is the quantitative standard for meeting the volume requirements; if you don’t want operations to hurt your family anymore, and want MACD to become a "shield to protect your principal" - you might as well save this article on your mobile phone.
Next, I will disassemble the "practical template of MACD signal" (such as the specific K-line pattern of top divergence, the rhythm of adding positions near the zero axis), "case analysis of three-cycle resonance", and even "how to use MACD to repair family relationships" (such as withdrawing money when making money to give your family a sense of security).
focus on@趋势猎手老金 Tomorrow, I'll discuss how to read the MACD indicator's breathing rhythm, ensuring that every move you make is grounded in a rhythm you can understand and maintain. Remember: the key to success in the cryptocurrency world lies not in superior technical skills but in using indicators to control your movements and discipline to protect your home.
$ETH