Throttle welded shut, seatbelt fastened! When BTC's weekly trading volume shows massive increases, technical and news factors form a dual-core drive, and the market is at a critical juncture. Today, we will use the most hardcore analysis to dissect the underlying logic of BTC's current trend — is it a continuation of the surge or a $1,000 pullback?
1. Technical Analysis: What signals are hidden in the massive trading volume?
Price anchored at $123,300, showing signs of bullish foundation
The latest price has stabilized at the high of $123,300, resisting short selling pressure for 3 consecutive trading days. From a technical structure perspective, this position is both the upper edge of a previous consolidation platform and the support level of the 5-day moving average on the weekly chart, with significant buying strength — this sharply contrasts with the panic sell-off after the non-farm data revision at the beginning of the month, indicating that the market's acceptance of the current price level is increasing.
Volume surged by 34%, massive volume determines direction
This week's trading volume has reached 717 million, while today's forecast volume has surged to 964 million (an increase of 34% compared to this week's average), not only breaking through the 5-week average but also just 3.7% away from the 10-week average. This "massive increase in volume" is no coincidence:
In the short term, volume and price are expanding simultaneously, consistent with the characteristics of "real capital entering the market" (as opposed to a false rise without volume);
Historical patterns show that when weekly trading volume breaks through both the 5-week and 10-week average lines, it often indicates an acceleration of trends (in the last 3 similar cases, BTC experienced gains of over 10%).
2. News: Triple benefits forming a "thrust triangle"
The expectation for a shift in Federal Reserve policy is intensifying
The core PCE inflation data released this morning exceeded expectations, and the market's betting probability for a rate cut in September skyrocketed to 80%. This change completely reversed the tightening expectations after the non-farm data revision — the dollar index weakened in response, while BTC, as an "anti-fiat currency easing" asset, significantly enhanced its capital absorption ability (with a net inflow of $1.2 billion in the last 24 hours).
Whales and retail investors are forming a "coin hoarding consensus"
The BTC stock on exchanges has dropped to a 5-year low, with HODLers (long-term holders) accounting for 78% of holdings, showing that chips are concentrating from the circulating market to steadfast holders. More critically, whale addresses increased their holdings by over 21,000 BTC (about $2.58 billion) in just one week, this level of accumulation often corresponds to bets on medium to long-term trends.
Warning! The bull market's throttle is welded above $120,000! Will it continue to crush short sellers, or will it face a $1,000 pullback for a washout? In the short term, there are two scenarios to be cautious about (specific situations will be shared later)
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