📊 FedWatch Update – FOMC Meeting on Sept 17, 2025
* Rate Cut Probability (Ease): 80.3%
* No Change: 19.7%
* Rate Hike: 0.0%
Current target rate: 4.25% – 4.50%
🔍 Scenarios & Expected Impact
1. Rate Cut (Most likely – 80.3%)
* Gold (XAUUSD): Bullish in both short and long term. Potential breakout of key resistance as capital flows into safe-haven assets.
* Bitcoin (BTC): Often benefits from increased liquidity and lower rates. Short term may see high volatility due to FOMO, long term bias remains bullish.
2. No Change (19.7%)
* Gold: Possible short-term pullback, but longer-term uptrend intact if other macro factors support.
* Bitcoin: Likely to trade in a narrower range, awaiting fresh catalysts from upcoming economic data.
📌 Overall Outlook:
* When rate cut odds exceed 70%, markets often begin pricing it in ahead of the meeting.
* Traders should watch for sharp moves in the weeks before and after the FOMC, especially “technical pullbacks” on lower timeframes.
