After 16 days of consolidation, it broke $BTC the lower support at $115,000 and is now stabilizing around $111,700 — the market is trying to decode this movement 🔍
🧠 Technical reading and overall context:
- ✅ Technically:
- Negative breakout from the consolidation zone = short-term weakness signal
- The 50-day moving average at $112,951 may be tested soon
- RSI is retreating → upward momentum is gradually fading
- MACD shows a gradual downward trend 📊
- 🌐 Fundamentally:
- The Fed keeps rates steady = continued pressure on risky assets
- Rate cut expectations in September dropped from 60% to 43%
- The White House report pushes for clearer regulation of cryptocurrencies
- Anticipation of non-farm payroll (NFP) reports may bring additional volatility
- Trade wars and Trump's tariffs add a geopolitical element that increases the fragility of the landscape 🧯
📊 What could reverse the trend?
- Approval of ETP regulation = opening the door for new institutional tools 🔁
- Coinbase's collaboration with JPMorgan Chase = a sign of industry maturity
- Continued demand for ETFs + regulatory clarity = potential positive factors in August
📌 Summary?
The market is at a critical juncture — any break below the technical averages without a clear rebound could lead $BTC into a broader corrective wave towards the $109–105K range. Conversely, any rebound from these areas driven by institutional momentum could retest $120K then $123K.
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