Tonight, the drama in the cryptocurrency world is more thrilling than a suspense film—the non-farm payroll data "shocked" the market and stirred it into a reversal drama.
The non-farm employment expectation was 110,000, but the actual number was only 70,000, clearly signaling weak employment. Logically, the dollar should weaken, and gold (little yellow fish) should surge with a big bullish candle, following the script as it should. However, Bitcoin, as the “digital gold,” went in the opposite direction, crashing below the 114,000 support level. This wave of action is truly bewildering.
In the end, it’s still the "binding" line of the U.S. stock market that is causing trouble. As soon as the dollar weakens, the Nasdaq can’t hold up against a significant drop, and crypto stocks fare even worse, with Coinbase sinking directly. After all, this round of the bull market was pushed up together by ETFs, institutions, and crypto stocks, tightly bound to the U.S. stock market like502 glue. When the U.S. stock market falls, the crypto market simply cannot stand apart and can only "get hit by stray bullets."
Now, all the pressure is on the Federal Reserve and Powell. With employment data this weak, the market's bet on a rate cut in September has soared to 75%, and Trump is urging on the side: "If there's no rate cut, take over the Federal Reserve." The contest between these two old men is even more heart-wrenching than the fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices. Rate cut expectations should be a positive sign, but the panic sentiment in the U.S. stock market hasn’t fully digested, and the crypto market still has to "cross the calamity" first.
Next, we need to focus on two points: first, whether Bitcoin can stabilize at the 110,000 mark, and avoid triggering a wave of forced liquidations; second, whether the Federal Reserve will be "forced" by the market and Trump to ease up. If rate cut expectations materialize and the U.S. stock market stabilizes first, the crypto market may finally have a chance to catch its breath. After all, the foundation of the current bull market still lies in the "mood of the U.S. stock market"; if the U.S. stock market doesn’t smile, Bitcoin and altcoins will likely have to continue to hold on.
